GENEVA: The cooling weather phenomenon La Nina could appear in coming months, but if it does it will likely be too “weak and short-lived” to significantly impact soaring global temperatures, the UN said on Wednesday.

There is currently a 55-percent likelihood of La Nina conditions emerging by the end of February, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organi­sation said in its latest update.

There was a similar chance of the phenomenon developing between February and April, it added.

The WMO had earlier this year voiced hope the return of La Nina would help lower temperatures slightly after months of global heat records fuelled in part by La Nina’s opposite number, the warming El Nino weather pattern, which gripped the planet for a year from June 2023.

But WMO chief Celeste Saulo warned in Wednesday’s statement that a possible La Nina would have little impact following a 2024, which is on track to be the hottest year on record.

“Even if a La Nina event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” she said.

“Even in the absence of El Nino or La Nina conditions since May, we have witnessed an extraordinary series of extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall and flooding which have unfortunately become the new norm in our changing climate.”

Published in Dawn, December 12th, 2024