DUBAI: A deal for the world to transition away from fossil fuels was hailed as a historic achievement at the UN climate summit, but there’s a good chance it won’t achieve its ultimate goal — holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Scientists say that a global temperature rise beyond 1.5C above the preindustrial average will trigger catastrophic and irreversible impacts, from melting ice sheets to the collapse of ocean currents.

For months, COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber had described that limit — first stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement — as his “North Star” or guiding principle for the summit.

But year after year, that target slips further away — with the world’s planet-warming emissions still rising, and temperatures hitting new heights.

Scientists worried goal of limiting warming to 1.5C already out of reach as global oil demand set to rise next year

This year will be the hottest ever on record, with the global average for 2023 a sweltering 1.46C above preindustrial levels.

In terms of global warming, which is measured in terms of decades, the world has experienced nearly 1.2C (2.2F) of warming.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the main scientific body which informs the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, has said that limiting warming to 1.5C with no or limited overshoot would require rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

Specifically, the world needs to cut its emissions from 2019 levels by as much as 43pc in the next six years, 60pc by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050 in order to prevent compounding impacts, such as thawing permafrost which releases long-trapped greenhouse gases, triggering even more warming.

The UAE Consensus does not commit the world to phasing out oil and gas, nor to near-term timelines for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

“It’s like promising your doctor that you will ‘transition away from donuts’ after being diagnosed with diabetes,” said climate scientist Michael Mann of the University of Pennsylvania.

The UAE Consensus also calls on countries to accelerate new technologies, which could include “abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage”.

This means the world could continue using coal, oil and gas, provided they can capture those emissions.

In addition, according to the International Energy Agency’s estimates, global oil demand will rise faster than expected next year, a sign that the outlook for near-term oil use remains robust despite COP28’s agreement to transition away from fossil fuels.

Critics say the technology remains expensive and unproven at scale, and worry that it will now be used to justify continued drilling.

Despite the COP28 Presidency’s efforts to highlight food security as a pressing threat, the UAE Consensus does not attempt to tackle the sizeable emissions that come from agriculture and waste.

Farmlands, livestock and landfills account for one-third of the world’s planet-warming emissions. But they’re also harder to bring down, with limited solutions on offer.

“Even if fossil fuels were phased out, if you don’t tackle food systems, it’s impossible to reach 1.5C,” said agricultural scientist Emile Frison of the International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems.

Published in Dawn, December 15th, 2023