Why is winter starting earlier/later than normal?

One of the most striking things we have observed is that global warming has caused abrupt atmospheric variability. It has disrupted traditional seasons, causing summers and winters to arrive late.

These erratic weather patterns are becoming increasingly common, with some years experiencing unprecedented rainfall and others facing severe droughts.

These shifts in temperature and rainfall are significantly impacting the duration and character of winter and summer seasons.

As world leaders gather in the UAE in the run up to the COP28 summit, Dawn is speaking to experts to answer some pressing, every-day questions that are on people’s minds about climate change.

The temperature during days and nights has increased over time, resulting in more warm days throughout the year, even during traditionally cooler seasons.

What is causing winters to shrink?

There is a positive correlation between shrinking winters and the El Nino Southern Oscillation — a phenomenon in the eastern equatorial Pacific where surface warming of ocean waters occurs. The water temperature remains warm for longer durations, which is an anomaly. Warmer ocean water affects the atmosphere above, disrupting global weather patterns and leading to less rainfall.

Today, Dr Mohammed Afzal, the director of research and development at the Pakistan Meteorological Department, explains the phenomenon of shrinking winters, erratic weather patterns and El Nino.

Will the season get shorter?

Compared to the 1960s, data shows winters have shrunk to just 15 to 20 days in Islamabad and across the country. The peak winter season now ranges from December 15 to January 15. This year’s September and October were the warmest in our history. November is ending, and people are still going around without jackets and coats, which is very uncharacteristic of this month. This leads to a potential loss of a well-defined spring season.

These seasonal shifts could have far-reaching implications for the environment and society, affecting everything from agriculture to public health. Urgent measures are needed to address and mitigate the impacts of climate change before it drastically alters the world we leave behind for future generations.

Published in Dawn, November 26th, 2023