KARACHI, Jan 18: A steep fall in phutti (seed cotton) arrivals during last fortnight ended January 15 deepened fears about the size of current season (2005-06) crop. Indications are that the country will have to import over 2.5 million bales to meet the domestic demand.

Official figures released on Wednesday showed that cotton production remained short by 15.27 per cent at 11.660 million bales compared to 13.781 million bales produced in the corresponding period last year.

During the fortnight the phutti arrivals further declined and stood short by 244,664 bales at 414,705 bales as against 659,369 bales produced the same period last year.

However, it was interesting to note that unsold stocks lying with ginneries stood high at 2.640 million bales compared to 1.784 million bales the corresponding period last year.

The spinners so far purchased around 8.957 million bales of new crop whereas private exporters lifted a small quantity of 63,000 bales. However, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) made no procurement from new crop.

Other details of the crop showed that Punjab was short by 15.23 per cent in new crop so far. It produced around 9.249 million bales compared to 10.911 million bales recorded in the same period last year.

Similarly, Sindh also short by 15.41 million bales at 2.41 million bales as against 2.850 million bales produced in the corresponding period last year.

“If current arrival situation continues, the estimated crop size of 12.5 million bales may not be achieved and the country will be short by 2.5 million bales to meet spinning industry’s need,” a leading cotton analyst told Dawn.

Since the millers have already imported around one million bales, and around 400,000 bales are lying with the TCP, therefore around a million bales will have to be further imported, he maintained.