CHANGE and flux are a constant part of evolution. The cause and the manner in which change transpires largely determine the outcome. Today, we are standing at a crossroads. An existential threat is staring us in the face. Reason would dictate that we make it our foremost concern and address it with urgency. However, the ground realities are contrary. In the global context, the war in Ukraine is adding to the misery and hardship of people in ways that will have long-term ramifications for global peace and security. At the national level, the political turmoil in Pakistan is setting a new trend for asserting populist narratives that is pushing the boundaries of democratic norms to a dangerous precipice.

The Sixth Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change has been released and its findings are nothing short of alarming. The report highlights the dangers of a rapidly warming world and its cascading impacts of destruction that will spare no one. The report concludes that to have a 50 per cent chance of meeting the climate goal, greenhouse gas emissions will have to peak by 2025. It will require coal use to drop by 95pc, oil by 60pc and gas by 45pc. This may seem like a tall order but science and technology offer hope. Both will play a critical role in transitioning to clean energy and strengthening adaptive resilience.

There was a time where social instability, economic disparity and political disputes could be addressed through negotiations or in the battlefield and people could alternate between periods of war and peace, prosperity and deprivation, freedom and oppression. However today, we are living in a globalised world where supply chains make us interdependent and countries forge political and economic alliances to secure the interests of their country.

We are living in an era where time and space are fast shrinking for stabilisation in the climatic regime. This makes it critical to address mitigation and adaptation, instead of fighting for political supremacy or asserting any particular brand of ideology. The number one agenda right now is survival. We need to be alive before we can decide on how we want to live or what kind of political ideology we want to follow.

The main agenda right now is survival.

The situation in Pakistan even without climate costs is dire. The foreign exchange reserve stands at $11 billion. We are looking at a fiscal trade deficit of $50bn. A high current deficit means depreciation of the rupee, a higher rate of inflation and an uncompetitive economy. Combined with population growth rate at 2pc, water availability at 860 cubic metres per capita and dropping, a 38pc rate of stunting, large spatial poverty, significant gender disparities and intergenerational educational losses, the future looks grim. In the climate change domain, Pakistan’s estimated need is $200bn to support Nationally Determined Contributions commitments for 2030, of which 101bn is needed for energy and $7bn-$14bn per annum for adaptation and resilience.

Who will pay the cost? The answer lies in expanding not reducing our geo-economic space.

In the context of economic and human security (the twin pillars at the core of our National Security Policy), it is important to remember that the country has taken $6bn from the IMF, and $10bn from China (with a request for an additional $10bn). Pakistan’s exports are reported at $6bn with the US during 2021 and $12bn with the European Union, with an overall trade surplus of $4bn with the US and EU.

Security, like peace, has attracted many definitions in international political theory but since it encapsulates a broad domain, operating under its cover remains fluid. Many a time, people and governments have taken actions where intended and unintended outcomes have become difficult to handle. This lack of conceptual boundary is used as a tool to entice, lure and incite people and passions to whip up hysteria and patronage for political power. Aside from spill-outs, resulting from direct human activities, (global warming), another area of concern is consequences of internal conflicts as communities compete with each other to grab their share from a shrinking resource base. This puts human security at the heart of all conversations and approaches.

It is good to be ambitious but if rhetorical embellishments are based on flawed assumptions and delusional aspirations, they may provide short-term political dividends but will extract a heavy long-term cost. On a crisis slide, if you cross the point of inflection then recovery becomes irreversible. The climate crisis is reaching that point of no return, making it imperative for Pakistan to plot its trajectory wisely and take a pragmatic approach to navigate upcoming challenges.

The writer is head of Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.
aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, April 17th, 2022