LAHORE: An unprecedented dry season in the country’s history continues to spell doom for the Rabi crops as two major reservoirs, Tarbela and Mangla, report availability of 37 per cent less water by September end compared to the same period the previous year.

Data shows that at least 12.179 million acre feet (MAF) water was available in the two reservoirs combined on Sept 30 last year. Of this 5.719MAF was stored at Tarbela and 6.460MAF at Mangla dam.

However, this year, the water level stands at 4.022MAF and 3.665MAF at Tarbela and Mangla, respectively. That means the situation at rain-fed Mangla is more critical with over 43pc loss, whereas the water loss at Tarbela is over 29pc as compared to last year.

The current river inflows are 77,500 cusecs at Tarbela in Indus and 15,800 cusecs at Mangla in Jhelum. Whereas the last five-year average inflow at the two points is 136,300 cusecs and 20,000 cusecs, respectively.

A senior official in the Punjab Irrigation Department claims the situation will worsen for the province particularly in the upper Mangla command area because of a very low forecast for precipitation during the forthcoming winter season.

He blames the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) for the disaster, saying the federal entity worked under pressure from Sindh and continued releasing water from Mangla notwithstanding Punjab’s protest that draining the rain-fed reservoir despite poor rain forecast in the monsoon would lead to an irrigation debacle for the Rabi crops, including wheat -- the most important staple food.

Sind Tas Water Council’s Sulaiman Khan says Irsa believed the shortfall for Rabi crops will be 28pc against the 35pc estimated by private experts.

He says even a 28pc water shortfall means that the all-important wheat crop is in danger, and the country may plunge into a food crisis if attention is not paid because costlier electricity will deter farmers from optimal use of their tubewells to meet the irrigation water deficit.

Punjab Irrigation Minister Mohsin Khan Leghari says they are holding a discussion on Wednesday (today) to frame the province’s stance regarding the water shortage to be put up before the Irsa meeting scheduled for Thursday (tomorrow).

Published in Dawn, September 29th, 2021