DUBAI: No matter how well the diplomatic cover-up is executed on signs of tension between the US and Saudi Arabia, the strain in their ties has finally come out of the closet. While the official stance from both countries is that the subject has not been raised and that both maintain a strong and viable diplomatic bond, the possibility of US troops leaving their Saudi base according to a mutually acceptable timeframe is more likely to happen sooner than later, though not immediately.

The relationship has been perpetually tense and full of suspicion. It took the terror attacks of Sept 11 and the events thereafter to heighten them, make their policies come full circle and inch toward the realm of realpolitik. Beyond the controversy and debate, both versions of the story - the US wanting to pull out and Saudi Arabia telling the US to quit — fit in well given the present international scenario and how it will evolve from here.

The ruling House of Saud is nervous about an internal revolt by Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda terror network and other extremists. The Saudis, including one camp in the royal family, have long been against a security arrangement that is lodged in the presence of an outside military power to protect its internal interests.

A Saudi official, however, says it is more hurt feelings, not hard military or political calculation, that are the reason for Riyadh’s grouse. “It’s not a question of logistics, but probably a Saudi pressure tactic to stop the unfair media campaign (against it),” he said.

There is no doubt that the US-Saudi ties have been under the microscope even before Sept 11, not least because of a school of thought that the US presence in the Gulf makes the region less, not more, stable.

In August, Crown Prince Abdullah wrote to US President George W Bush, saying the world’s biggest oil producer and exporter would have to review bilateral ties unless Washington acted to resolve the Middle East conflict. In November, the New York Times quoted Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal as saying that Bush’s refusal to meet Arafat “makes a sane man go mad”.

While maintaining status quo, the US has been also been considering a scenario without Saudi Arabia. It is looking beyond the “benign dependence” theory in the region that has had its premise in the oil-security relationship. The US has been encouraged in this area by changes in the oil market that has seen a steady growth of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supplies.

Wary about the stability of its allies in the Middle East, the United States in late 2001 proposed a military alliance with India for the fight against terror. The United States has also been working to have a base in the oil-rich Central Asian countries.

There are some unanswered questions, however, which make the present controversy between the US and Saudi Arabia improbable. Would either country be ready to be independent of each other so soon after Sept 11? The US needs Saudi support to make a success of its war against terror, just as Riyadh needs Washington’s assistance to keep its domestic detractors at bay.—Dawn/InterPress Service.