LAHORE, Oct 26: The federal government has revised its cotton crop production estimate downward by conceding that the crop was likely to be short by about 2.5 million bales of its ambitious original target of 15m bales.

But experts and many farmers, including progressive growers feel that the final output may be further scuttled by another one to two million bales.

They also describe that the revision as belated because the state of the crop had been known for some weeks. A reduced yield was indeed on the cards after rains and windstorm in the first week of September that caused widespread flower shedding and as temperature was high with matching humidity during crucial stages of the crop’s development undermined the crop.

High temperature with low humidity is conducive for the crop’s growth but it is damaged when both factors are on the higher side. That has happened to the crop that is now being harvested.

Another aspect of the crop worrying farmers is apprehension that that the weight of the produce would be somewhat less than it is on an average year. What exactly has happened can be identified by analyses only but experts are of the view that the final output is likely to be undermined by this factor.

At his press conference in Islamabad on Wednesday, the Federal Minister for Food, Agriculture and Livestock, Sikandar Hayat Bosan, said that monsoon floods vastly destroyed the crop in three districts of southern Punjab that forms the cotton belt of the province. The districts are Rahimyar Khan, Layyah and Muzzafargarh.

However, they weren’t the only cotton growing areas affected by weather. A high velocity windstorm and not floods had hit the crop in most of the cotton regions of Punjab. This has already been reported in the press and the authorities should have assessed the situation earlier, experts say.

Meanwhile, market reports confirm a crop below expectation and estimates as arrivals have been low. The situation would clear to a considerable extent by the end of this month when the next report of arrivals is released, but the last report on October 15 placed arrivals 30 per cent short in comparison with arrivals at this stage last year.

Arrivals from Sindh were higher by six per cent but those from Punjab, the main cotton region of the country, were about 40 per cent short. If the trend persist, the crop could well be between 10 and 11 million bales. Sector experts see that as a reasonably good crop but it would apparently not be a bumper output and whatever plans the government may have based on another golden harvest would go awry.

But growers should be pleased because price of phutti in the market is fair to high, ranging between Rs1,200 to Rs1,250 for 40 kg. This could, however, be translated in to a negative development for the agriculture sector as many growers would delay the last picking as long as they can to extract maximum financial mileage. That, however, would delay the sowing of wheat. Delayed sowing reduces the crop’s yield and as wheat vastly follows cotton in most of Punjab, this would undermine the Rabi crop.