ISLAMABAD: The Food and Agriculture Organisa­tion (FAO) of the United Nations has cautioned that the ‘La Nina’ weather pattern, which is characterised by below-average precipitation, may affect the wheat crop in the rain-fed areas of Pakistan.

The production of the current Rabi season will, however, depend on the precipitation until next May which is likely to be influenced by the La Nina meteorological phenomenon, FAO says in a report on Thursday.

In addition, in the northern parts of the country, red­uced snowfall during the winter months may reduce the availability of irrigation supplies and soil moisture in the spring that normally comes from snow melting, it says.

Planting of the 2021 wheat crop, for harvest next April, started in October in the southern parts of the country and will continue until the end of the year in the north. Favourable weather conditions since the beginning of October and ample supplies of irrigation water have supported land preparation and planting activities.

The area planted with wheat is officially forecast at an above-average level of 9.16 million hectares, prompted by record domestic prices and official programmes promoting wheat production. At the end of October, the government increased the minimum support price for the 2021 wheat crop by 15 per cent compared to the previous year and announced plans to support wheat producers with subsidies for fertilisers and pesticides.

In March 2020, after heavy rains and locust infestation dampened expectations of a bumper harvest in 2020, the government allowed private imports, exempt of duties and taxes, and started importing wheat through official channels.

In the first seven months of the 2020-21 marketing year about 900,000 tonnes of wheat grain was imported compared to the 1,000 tonnes imported during the corresponding period in 2019-20. Overall, wheat imports in the 2020-21 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at about 1.7m tonnes, the largest volume since 2008-09, the report says.

Meanwhile, harvesting of the 2020 main season crop, mostly rice and maize, is expected to be completed by mid-December. The 2020 paddy output is estimated at a record 12.3m tonnes, reflecting the high level of plantings in response to remunerative prices. Damage to standing paddy crops were reported in Sindh due to floods in August and locust infestation.

The 2020 maize output is forecast at a record level of 7m tonnes, reflecting the high level of plantings due to the strong demand by the feed industry. Adequate supplies of high-yielding seed varieties, which covered nearly 70pc of the planted area, increased productivity.

The 2020 wheat output, harvested in June, is officially estimated at 25.25m tonnes, mostly reflecting reduced yields due to heavy rains and hail in March and April in Punjab and by locust infestation.

Rice accounts for the bulk of the cereal exports. In the 2020 calendar year, rice exports are forecast at 4m tonnes, 13pc less than the 2019 record.

Published in Dawn, December 11th, 2020