LAHORE, Oct 3: Basing their assessment on a shortfall of 46 per cent in first arrivals this year in comparison with the previous year, cotton sector experts and most of farmers feel that the current crop is unlikely to be above 11 to 12 million bales.

This would be three to four million bales below the target of 15m bales set by the government for the crop. The government had fixed the produce figure because of last year’s bumper yield of 14.6m bales.

The experts are of the view that firstly the very target was unrealistic reflected hopes of the government rather than consistent potential of the sector and, secondly various negative factors comprising weather conditions, floods in Sindh, wind storms, excessive heat in August causing widespread flower shedding and current low temperature that is conductive for breeding of certain pests have combined to restrict the yield from the crop.

While harvesting has started in many parts of Sindh and Punjab, majority of the cultivation is in the last stretch where final growth is undermined by low temperature that is increasing infestation by pink and army bollworms that could severely damage the crop.

These pests have not attained epidemic form but the weather is promoting their breeding and, the experts feel, only continuous sprays can arrest their further spread.

Extension wings of provincial departments of agriculture have been advising farmers to have two weekly sprays, but the experts are of the view that three sprays would be needed to effectively counter these worms.

The latest views of the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock on the crop size are not known but it is on record for forecasting a 14m-bale crop in August this year.

Haji Arshad, a leading cotton grower of Rahimyar Khan, tells Dawn that he does not expect a crop of over 11-12m bales because throughout the crop development period weather was inconsistent. Rains and storms damaged the crop while intense heat caused flower shedding. “The best that can be hopped is a million bale plus crop,” he adds.

Mohammad Akram, owner of a seed company, was less pessimistic about the crop but he too was of the opinion that “the crop is weaker than the last year’s cotton and is unlikely to meet the target fixed by the government”.

The assessment of Hasan Raza, another progressive farmer, was similar to the evaluation of other growers and he too feels that the crop would not be another bumper harvest. But, he believed that it would still be a reasonably good crop.

The Farmer’s Association of Pakistan and the Kissan Board have already said that the crop would be 12 to 13m bales at best. They have not ruled out a lower produce.

While the government was apparently carried away by the last year’s unprecedented high yield, another reason for its expectations was enlarged area of cotton cultivation. However, land cannot produce all by itself and crops need nature’s help for blooming.

The weather factor is not supportive of another big crop this time.