LAHORE: Renowned Iranian-American scholar Vali Nasr says the Taliban are holding their fire to substantiate the agreement with the US and there is fear that they can resume fighting for complete control of Afghanistan after an interval.

He was speaking in a session on ‘Eyewitness: Brokering Peace in Afghanistan’ on the last day of the Lahore Literary Festival (LLF) on Sunday.

Former foreign secretary of Pakistan Riaz Mohammad Khan was a participant in the session, which was moderated by Ahmed Rashid.

Talking about foreign intervention in Afghanistan, he said the Americans were very good at the military part upfront but not good at securing peace later on. He said they were hearing about success in negotiations between the US and the Taliban but there was nothing substantial about it yet.

Mr Nasr said there was lot of difference between former president Barack Obama and the current president Donald Trump in many ways but both were on the same page regarding withdrawing forces out of Afghanistan. He added that the American government’s priorities were changing and it was serious about coming out of the prolonged war in Afghanistan.

He said the new generation in the US was challenging war by declaring it a catastrophe.

“They are demanding from their government to pay off student loans.”

Mr Nasr added that Donald Trump had threatened to privitise the war when he was asked by the military to increase troops in Afghanistan that they needed more time. He said Trump was questing the military about the war taking time and wanted to end it soon as he could not be bullied into following a new strategy.

“Half of America thinks that the existential threat to America is Trump himself. The other half thinks it’s not the Arabs or Muslims but the Mexicans and Guatemalans – migrants,” Vali Nasr said showing how the public was moving away from the war on terrorism because Trump’s rule has changed the problems people care about.

“This has serious implications for Afghanistan and peace.”

Riaz Mohammad Khan said they could not take the exit of the US in total for granted because until the last year, the so-called establishment wanted to have some kind of footprint continuing in Afghanistan.

Speaking on reduction of violence, he said Afghans were also pragmatic.

“If I were a Taliban I would tell them to target Afghan forces and not America.”

He said the Taliban should consolidate their influence after because Afghan army had failed due to fighting outside its territories.

“It is not like the Pakistan Army that you can deploy anywhere,” he said.

PPP senator Sherry Rehman, who was sitting in the audience, questioned why would the Taliban in this reduction of violence mode not try to retain their fighting post and who would guarantee the rights of the women in the country.

“We are living in interesting times. We never thought Sirajuddin Haqqani (deputy leader of the Taliban) will write for The New York Times, which is essentially a love note to Trump. There is no doubt that women’s rights are the sacrificial lambs. The fear is that there is going to be a decent interval that the Taliban are going to hold their fire and live by the agreement and that after that they can resume fighting,” Vali Nasr answered.

He said Trump only wanted to leave and it was not about a stable future for Afghanistan.

Published in Dawn, February 24th, 2020