WITH a share of 0.8 per cent in GDP and a contribution of 4.5pc in agriculture value-addition, cotton has been a lifeline to Pakistan’s economy.

However, the country has failed to achieve the cotton production target of around 15 million bales (with each bale weighing at least 155kg) for several years.

In the 2018-19 fiscal year, cotton output dropped 17.5pc year-on-year to 9.861 million bales. The figure was also 31.5pc lower than the 14.4m-bale target.

Provincial data shows that cotton production in Sindh, the second-largest contributor after Punjab, remains on the lower side since 2009-10, when the output hit 4.2m bales.

The production stood at 3.5m bales in 2014-15, 3.7m bales in 2017-18 and 2.9m bales in 2018-19.

Major reasons behind the declining output are said to be the shrinking area under cotton cultivation and a drop in per-acre yield.

Provincial cotton production has remained on the lower side since 2009-10

Khair Mohammad Junejo, a cotton grower from lower Sindh with 30 years of cotton cultivation experience, says he is getting a per-acre yield of fewer than 30 maunds (1 maund = around 37.3kg) this year compared to 49 maunds in the not-too-distant past.

He grows cotton on 1,841 acres in Mirpurkhas district and Sanghar, Sindh’s largest cotton-producing district.

Growers believe that production has been hit by unfavourable weather, especially a delay in monsoon rains and prolonged hot and dry weather.

Cotton growers also lament “inadequate payments” from ginners and cite it as a main reason why many cotton producers have switched to other crops (mainly sugarcane and maize) over the last several years.

“Those at the helm seem to have no time to address the issues facing the cotton sector, which earns foreign exchange for the country and meets textile industry’s needs,” says Hassan Ali Chanhio, a former caretaker agriculture minister in Sindh and a grower from Sanghar.

He believes that climate change has affected the cotton sector, and Pakistan should send experts to countries having identical weather patterns to see how they are performing well in cotton and other crops. “We may borrow seed from these countries,” he says.

Sindh’s growers have been cultivating Bt cotton — a genetically modified pest-resistant cotton variety — for a decade now.

The variety gave higher yields in the beginning and became a household name in rural Sindh, especially in lower Sindh because of the region’s suitable climate for Bt cotton.

But now the seed has perhaps lost its vigour and is susceptible to different pest attacks like pink bollworm.

“I clearly remember there was a time when cotton growers even extended their Bt cotton crop until autumn (the February-March period) when cotton plants start producing new fruit. This helped growers save land-preparation and other miscellaneous expenses,” says Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB) Mahmood Nawaz Shah.

Official cotton-sowing figures show that nearly 28pc area could not be brought under cotton cultivation in 2018-19. Against a target of 620,000 hectares (around 1.5m acres), cotton was sown on 448,189 hectares during the year.

During this season, the sowing target has been increased to 640,000 hectares and cotton sowing has reportedly been achieved on 614,579 hectares, or 96pc of the total area.

Sindh’s cotton production target is set at 4.6m bales for the current season. However, a report released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association on Nov 3 confirms arrivals of 2.928m bales in the province against last year’s arrivals of 3.434m bales.

Growers say that uncertified cotton seed has flooded the provincial market. Seed from Punjab also reaches the market without check. The same goes for pesticides, whose quality remains substandard.

The federal government has recently formed a cotton-review committee to find ways to revive cotton production.

The committee, headed by Agriculture University of Multan’s Vice Chancellor Prof Dr Asif Ali, will submit its report by the next month and recommend some concrete steps to be taken before the next kharif season in late February.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 25th, 2019