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Economists sound warning over India data ahead of poll
MUMBAI: A group of more than 100 experts sounded a pre-election alarm Friday over Indian economic data, accusing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government of tweaking or burying unwelcoming numbers.
Modi is vulnerable over his economic record in the polls starting on April 11, in particular a failure to meet promises to create enough jobs for the million Indians entering the labour market each month.
The warning comes after India’s central bank chief quit in December in a spat over alleged government interference. His successor, a Modi ally, oversaw a economy-boosting cut in interest rates last month in his first monetary policy meeting.
The 108 economists and social scientists said in an open letter that Indian statistics were “under a cloud for being influenced and indeed even controlled by political considerations”.
“(Any) statistics that cast an iota of doubt on the achievement of the government seem to get revised or suppressed on the basis of some questionable ideology,” they said.
The opposition Congress party of Rahul Gandhi, who has called Modi’s record on employment a “national disaster”, jumped on the letter.
“How much more can this govt. embarrass us on a global level?,” the party said on its official Twitter account.
Economists in fellow emerging Asian giant China and abroad have long suspected that data there is also massaged, often noting that full-year gross domestic product hits Beijing’s pre-set targets with suspicious regularity.
‘Highest in a decade!’
In 2015, the Indian Central Statistics Office (CSO) revised economic output numbers for past years, changing the base year and showing significantly faster — and questionable — growth rates.
The letter also questioned a revised growth rate of 8.2pc in 2016-17, “the highest in a decade!”, that “seems to be at variance with the evidence marshalled by many economists”.
That raised particular suspicion since it was when “demonetisation” — one of Modi’s biggest and most derided economic policies when 86pc of banknotes were withdrawn — hit businesses hard.
This was followed in 2017 by the tardy rollout of a nationwide new Goods and Services Tax (GST), which has been praised by experts but which has had considerable teething problems.
The letter also noted that a major and overdue survey on employment has still not been released. Two senior statistics officials have resigned in protest at the delay.
Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2019
Comments (21) Closed
All these economists are fake. India is doing well. Come and see for yourself. A false narrative being generated in election time.
Modi, Modi, fudging the books! Hard to believe...
Gordon D. Walker
Canada
Most of those 'feel good' progress numbers were fake, and many Indians are debunking the government claims like they debunked those comical surgical strikes.
Fake numbers, fake strikes, fake pride. You need no enemy.
Do anything! Say anything! It is going to be Modi again. Why? Because there is no alternative.
Authenticity of data is something which should remain unstirred,let's keep politics and one's urge to belittle the other away from these reputed institutions.
@Anon, 1.3 billions Indians do not have alternative to Modi. This is what RSS and BJP followers think. What a shame.
@Anon, No alternative in a country of 1.4 billion? That makes it a dooms day scenario!
Which puts Modi in the same category as Tayyip Erdogan attempting to run the national bank himself.
Besides that the GDP growth rate of India in modi tenure has come down from 8.7% in 2015 to 6.4% as of 2019.
India is doing exceedingly well with GDP growth exceeding 7%. This is fastest growing large economy. This is despite US $700 Billions of bad not performing loans of Government Banks and non banking finance companies left over by previous government. Inflation below 4%. These are commendable numbers.
Who are these 108 mysterious economists? Do they have names and have some credibility?
A fake economists group sponsored by congress. So cheap Rahul
@MG, these economists are stooges of congress.
Modi Nawaz Bhai bhai when it comes to fudging data.
@Lost cause, are the economists fake, or more likely you are out of your depth talking about matters which you obviously don't understand?
Which party these so called 'experts' belong to.
Are all the Indians commenting here highly qualified economists and finance experts?
Do they know the ABC of such issues.
People still have faith in Modi, despite these inconveniences because they know that there is no magic wand .
@Art kp , we dont need alternative as Modiji is doing gud work for India and its citizens.
@Akram, Depending on the occasion, Indians wear different hats especially here to impress us. They can be economic experts, political analyst/experts and of course IT people and anything in between. They do not take any criticism no matter how off they are especially against Modi or his performance. He is admired, revered, worshiped and trusted to the point that he is considered a savior, an avatar