LAHORE: The powerful monsoon system weakened a bit but still gave widespread torrential flood-generating rain over the upper catchments of the three eastern rivers across the border on Sunday, enhancing chances of high to very high flood in the River Chenab.

Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) chief Riaz Khan reported torrential rain over the upper catchments of the Ravi and Sutlej in Indian Himachal Pradesh but said flows on Pakistani sides of the rivers depended upon releases from three Indian dams built on them.

“We are closely monitoring the situation and in contact with the Indian authorities under the Indus Water Basis Treaty. Any releases (from dams) would be conveyed to us,” he said.

According to Mr Khan and the satellite pictures, the monsoon depression weakened into a well marked low and was mainly affecting upper catchments of the rivers Sutlej, Ravi and adjacent Chenab. But it still had the potential to produce flood generating rains.

“The intensity of the rain has slightly decreased but the system is still powerful,” Mr Khan said.

He said upper catchments of the three rivers were recording torrential rain since in the morning and it would continue with the same intensity during the Sunday night.

India reported 144,000 cusecs in the River Jammu Tawi which falls in the River Chenab before entering Pakistan in the Sialkot region. This peak will enter Pakistan at Marala any time during Sunday night. As the region will get more heavy to extremely heavy rain during the night, the flow may increase. The River Chenab may be in high to very high flood in the next two days.

Rain also increased flows in Nullah Dek in the Sialkot region.

Mr Khan said the initial impact of the incessant rain in Himachal Pradesh where the monsoon system centered, would be absorbed by the three dams over the rivers Beas, Sutlej and Ravi which were ye to be filled. India regularly conveys daily releases from these dams under the Indus Basin Water Treaty. It would definitely convey any major high peaks in the rivers Ravi and Sutlej downstream Pakistan, he hoped.

The meteorologist said water released from Harikey, India, takes 24 hours to reach Ganda Singhwala, Kasur in Pakistan (through Sutlej), and from Madhopur, India, takes 18 hours to reach Jassar Pakistan (through Ravi).

“This time is enough for adopting emergency safety measures,” he said, explaining that the FFD was already in touch with all the departments and agencies concerned so as to make them rise to any occasion well in time.

Meanwhile, Lahore and Sialkot region also received light to heavy rain because of the monsoon system. Sialkot recorded 48mm rain, Kasur 24mm, Gujrat 20mm, and Lahore 14mm.

The FFD sees widespread thunderstorm /rain with scattered heavy falls, isolated very heavy falls, over the upper catchments of the rivers Sutlej , Ravi and Chenab along with Gujranwala Division. Scattered thunderstorm/rain with Isolated heavy falls is expected over the upper catchments of the rivers Indus and Jhelum along with Lahore Division.

It reported that in the past 24 hours Narowal region recorded heavy rain (Shakargarh 72mm, Zafarwal 61mm and Baddomalhi 25mm, Aik Nullah (Ura) 42mm, Kotnaina 22mm, Gujrat 20mm, Kotli 19mm, Mangla 8mm, Kasur 6mm.

It said the rain spell was likely to decrease from Tuesday. But high to very high flood is expected in the River Chenab at Marala and downstream, Jhelum at Mangla, Ravi and Sutlej along with associated nullahs of the rivers Chenab and Ravi during next 24 to 48 hours.

Published in Dawn, September 24th, 2018