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IT is perhaps the most complex and the oddest of relationships. The two are supposed to be allies but are also regarded as adversaries. Some use the term ‘frenemy’ to describe them or refer to their situation as a ‘magnificent delusion’. Often described as a shotgun marriage solemnised in the aftermath of 9/11, the association between Washington and Islamabad seems to have come full circle.
There is nothing much left in the partnership wrecked by allegations of ‘double game’ and ‘deceit’. Yet a complete breakup is not a choice for either side at least for now. Events on the eve of a short visit by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the American military chief to Islamabad are being seen as ominous. The suspension of $300m from the Coalition Support Fund to Pakistan and the controversy generated by the telephonic conversation between Pompeo and Prime Minister Imran Khan are symptomatic of the widening trust gap.
Almost all US military aid has been stopped and only a trickle of civilian aid is now coming to Pakistan. The interaction between the two countries has been reduced to a low official level though military-to-military contacts may still have survived. While the illusion of any strategic convergence has been absent for long, even a transactional relationship is hard to maintain. Like previous American presidencies, the Trump administration is also seeing relations with Pakistan from a purely Afghan prism.
President Donald Trump’s new year tweet accusing Pakistan of lying and being deceitful, and his South Asia policy, has brought Pakistan-US ties to a new low. It is even worse than what it was in the 1990s when Pakistan was under all kinds of US sanctions. The antagonism witnessed now is unprecedented. Washington’s demand for unquestionable compliance is unacceptable to Pakistan. Trump’s policy of using pressure tactics to bring Pakistan to its knees does not seem to be working.
Recent US actions that appear to ‘punish’ Pakistan will not help in obtaining the new government’s support.
Against this backdrop, Pompeo’s short stopover in Islamabad on his way to New Delhi does not raise any hope of a breakthrough in the first face-to-face talks between the Trump administration and Pakistan’s new government. The US has laid down its rules that require Pakistan to ‘do more’ in fighting terrorism on its soil, bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table and force the insurgents to work with the Kabul government.
It is apparent that the US officials will reiterate this demand in their talks with Pakistan’s civil and military leadership. But what are the choices for Pakistan? There are no two views about the need for Pakistan to clear terrorist and militant groups allegedly using its soil. But recent US actions that appear to ‘punish’ Pakistan have not and will not help in obtaining the new government’s support. Stopping CSF reimbursements and issuing threatening messages and humiliating tweets make it more difficult for Islamabad to cooperate with Washington.
Indeed, there is a growing realisation within the US administration that the war in Afghanistan cannot be won through military means, and the only way out of the crisis is a negotiated political settlement. Yet, there has not been any significant US initiative or a clear strategy to start peace talks. Recently, the US established informal contacts with Afghan Taliban officials based in Qatar, but that has not delivered much.
While the Taliban are willing to directly engage with the US, they have not shown any flexibility on their stance of not talking to the Kabul government. The insurgents have rejected Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s gesture. Recent military successes have intensified the Taliban’s intransigence. A three-day ceasefire during Eidul Fitr had raised hopes that the atmosphere could become more conducive to moving forward on peace, but the rejection of a similar move by the Taliban on the occasion of Eidul Azha indicates the hardening approach of the insurgents who have expanded their area of influence in war-torn Afghanistan.
Another factor boosting the Taliban’s confidence is that they are gaining greater international recognition. Not only Russia but some other countries too are now engaging with the Taliban at an official level. That has further weakened whatever influence Pakistan could wield over the group, making it more difficult for Islamabad to force the Taliban to join the peace process. The increasing fragmentation of political power and strengthening of warlordism have made the Afghan crisis more complicated. The growing involvement of neighbouring and regional countries in Afghanistan has aggravated the situation.
More worrisome is the increasing tension between Kabul and Islamabad following an escalation in the Taliban offensive. The battle for Ghazni that took a heavy toll on the Afghan National Army and the allegation by Afghan military officials that a large number of fighters came from Pakistan have washed away some signs of the recent positivity in relations between the two countries. The widening trust deficit has also limited Pakistan’s role in peace efforts.
The likely appointment of Zalmay Khalilzad as special US envoy to Afghanistan also raises questions about the seriousness of the Trump administration to find a political solution to the Afghan conflict. With his well-known biases, the Afghan-born US official is hardly a rational choice to work for regional peace which involves Pakistan. His likely appointment is seen as part of the US tightening the noose around Pakistan. There is also the big question of whether he would be able to bring together the various squabbling Afghan political groups.
It is not just about the Afghan issue straining relations between Washington and Islamabad. The Trump administration has also expressed its concern over Pakistan’s growing strategic and economic ties with China. Officials regularly question Beijing’s strategic stakes in CPEC. The recent warning by Pompeo against any IMF bailout for Pakistan that would help the latter pay off its Chinese debt indicates that Washington is willing to go to any extent to stifle Pakistan financially as part of its pressure tactics.
Notwithstanding these tensions, there is still some convergence of interest between the two estranged allies when it comes to ending the war in Afghanistan. But the Trump administration’s tactics will not help the two sides work together. Managing these troubled ties will also pose a serious challenge to the new administration in Pakistan.
The writer is an author and journalist.
Twitter: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2018
Comments (45) Closed
Good analysis & sincere advise.
As a Canadian, with love for Pakistan, I would humbly suggest that Pakistan stand on her own feet and not depend too much on foreign aid, from any quarter, whatsoever!
Next are US sanctions. Brace for that.
US does not need Pakistan any more. Hence such behavior.
The americans, russians and the chinese are all playing the same game, they are all going to use pakistan as the pawn.
well-balanced assessment.
As if the new government is in a position to take independent decision to cooperate with the US even if the establishment was not interested in cooperating with the US.
where is Pakistan's narrative ?
"The two are supposed to be allies but are also regarded as adversaries." Pakistan and US relations is a perfect example to understand the complexity of international relations. Alliances don't define relations between two countries. You can be allied without being in an alliance, and you can be foes even being in an alliance. Pakistan and US were allied regarding USSR and came into an alliance because of it, but were not allied regarding India and China. The US tried to ally Pakistan in that regard as well using the alliance regarding USSR. In the meanwhile there is no USSR, but the alliance continued in form but failed to take a shape in essence, except for Afghanistan in minor scale compared to USSR. It is important but cannot define the wider interest regarding China and India. Pakistan cannot compromise on these issues because of the convergence with US on Afghanistan.
Let us not alow our soil to be used for launching attacks on Afghan soil and let then the US deal with the mess they have created by invading Afghanistan.
...''But the Trump administration’s tactics will not help the two sides work together...'' And it says this all... no hope
The wishful thinking of the Americans to keep control over Pakistan is coming to an end. Though never expressed loudly and in so many words, their desire to control this country and its people is evident from the past. The CPEC. is the main bone of contention here. It will enable Pakistan to get out of the American hegemony in the coming times. Needless to say that the new government would do well not to compromise the national interests of Pakistan in any deal that is coming our way now.
America cannot afford to get out of Afghanistan and risk Russia and China stepping in instead. America cannot also risk losing Pakistan because it forms a strategic boundary between the present superpower and the two aspiring superpowers. It is sad that Pakistan does not have and never had a statesman of right calibre to reap a rich harvest of permanent strategic dividends from such a position, and our country is being constantly getting buried under a load of balance of payment deficits.
Very good analysis to the the problem of relationship between USA and Pakistan. Indian involvement in Pakistan and Afghanistan affairs are not helping at all. We hope USA will not weaken the relationship with Pakistan.
Old habits die hard.
The US and Pakistani relations are exactly same both are saying what they want to say totally disregarding what other is saying.
If the Pakistan government doesn't know it the US military has been allowed to use Russian airspace to fly armaments and supplies into Afghanistan for sometime now.
Recently, we had floods in South India, decimating a productive state. We refused offers of help from states that are on completely friendly terms with us. It was a matter of pride that we can stand on our own. In the decades immediately after independence, we accepted help. But those times have to be brought to a close if we truly have to be independent and self-sufficient.
@Jalaluddin S. Hussain That's what IK is trying to do.
US talks big and acts big but it still comes back to Pakistan to help it and get it out of a mess. US policy is a failed cowboy policy for South Asia with an anti Pakistan possy advising Trump, the biggest Cowboy with 10 gallon hat.
A very correct analysis of the current imbroglio between two allies coming out in the open due to mutual mistrust. The writer is very right in pinpointing afghan stalemate to be the main reason in making this freeze in relation to be more frigid & not working to the best interest of both the nations. The instrasigence of Afghan govt. in their baseless accusation of Pakistan being involved in the short lived occupation of Ghazni, is also adding fuel to the fire. The weak Afghan government whose writ is further circumvented due to wardlordism on the rise in different parts of the country in its control, is adding more to this blame game which is not helpful in resolution of this very difficult issue. The writer is very right in saying that Pakistan’s influence with Taliban is waning due to reason of their getting recognition from other nations. Nevertheless, the new govt. must try to improve its relationship with US & avoid confrontation at all cost to safeguard its long term interests
US can't live with us and they can't live without us.
@Alba Please use other countries' space for flying your sorties to Afghanistan and leave Pakistan alone. We don't want to do any more for you.
It is a pity that after 70 years of independence we are still dependent on $300M aid? It must be shameful for every true Pakistani to accept this reality. What have our leaders given us? Our policies have brought us to this stage!! If this is not shameful then what is??
@Dhanya $300 Million is not an aid it was reimbursement for services Pakistani side rendered to Americans for War on terror in Afghanistan etc. How US has treated Canada , Mexico, Turkey and Europeans, it clear US is no longer Super power.
If the US imposes sanctions Pakistan should block the NATO supply as the days of direct confrontation are over and the US has made more enemies than friends ever since Trump took over ...!
Imran Khan’s regional foreign policy approach makes sense — aka closer ties with Iran, China and Russia. The USA will have none of it and will squeeze Pakistan hard via financial sanctions both directly and indirectly. Not to mention depriving the army of top of the line weaponry. The resulting economic stresses will be harsh, especially the inflationary impacts on the poor. But Imran Khan needs to dig his heels in. We have received tons of aid and grants from the west in the past 70 years with nothing to show for it bar profligate spending, corruption and debt build-up. The new economic paradigm which features external business partnerships and internal accountability will reap long-term dividends.
the US is occupying Afghanistan, afghanis are opposing them. the US is not interested in exiting Afghanistan for 50-100 years or more. all US rhetoric is false.
@AFRIDI agree
@Hani_Layyah correct
will someone explain to me how Pakistanis think CPEC will alleviate all its financial worries.
Accurate analysis indeed. In my opinion, some of the US demands are rational and should be considered with cool heads because accepting them and their implementation may be in the long term interest of Pakistan. Concern about CPEC related funding by the Chinese banks and Pakistan’s ability to pay back are realistic and not far fetched
@Aravind;
US will continue to need Pakistan as long as they continue to pretend they haven't lost the Afghan war.
@Jalaluddin S. Hussain Totally agree. Respect is earned
@Alien1 Why does Pakistan allows other to use it as pawn. It is fault of leadership.
Had Saddam or Gaddafi foreseen the doom looming over their kingdom, could they still be alive with their enormous riches? In its bid for world domination China will face stiffer resistance. Russia can be ostracized for a hyperactive role. Where does that leave Pakistan?
Pompeo and now the appointment of Zalmay, America is ganging up against Pakistan. PTI government should bring to the attention of Trump that these gimmicks will not work anymore.
@Aravind Yes, US need Pakistan. Pakistan important country forever geographical for US. US will never abandon Pakistan. You don't know what you are talking about.
@Dhanya We are talking about Pakistan not India. This is off topic. Stick to the topic.
@AFRIDI our soil is not used. Why would it be, when 70% of Afghanistan' is under Taliban control.
@Taylor "will someone explain to me how Pakistanis think CPEC will alleviate all its financial worries." CPEC will not alleviate Pakistan's financial worries, and it is not its purpose either. It is a trade route from China to different regions of the world going through Pakistan. Where did you see that it was devised to alleviate Pakistan's financial worries?
@Alba "If the Pakistan government doesn't know it the US military has been allowed to use Russian airspace to fly armaments and supplies into Afghanistan for sometime now." That makes US dependent on Russia regarding its presence in Afghanistan. Why should Pakistan worry? If Russia and US are on the same page regarding Afghanistan, it would be to undermine China's position in the region along with that of Iran and Turkey. Whom will they talk to if it comes to this point?
Good analysis with reasonings
A cogent analysis. Well done. It is delusional for Pakistan to think that the U.S. considers Pakistan as a strategic partner. No, the U.S. consider themselves as the sole super power of the world, and Pakistan as a weak and dependent client state that better do what they are told to do, if they knows what is good for them.
Unless Pakistan takes this U.S.withholding of the "reimbursement of funds" as a challenge, to break the shackles of dependency the nation has to brace itself for turbulent times ahead.
The good news is that we have a sincere and patriotic leadership in the government that cares about Pakistan and the national interests and is willing to do something about it.
Pakistan's economy has always gone down sharply and suffered balance of payments crises whenever US aid to it has stopped. Pakistan has gone to the IMF 12 times since the late 80s for bailouts. In contrast, India went to the IMF for a bailout once in 1991 when it suffered a balance of payments crises, and then fixed its economy by liberalizing it. When will Pakistan fix its economy? We are headed towards a Greece style economic debacle, they also have a tradition of not paying taxes, and bloated public expenditures.