ISLAMABAD: Encoura­ged by the results of Saturday’s Senate elections, the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is now hopeful of getting the key office of Senate chairman with the support of its allies.

However, a group of 15 independents — seven from Balochistan and eight from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas — can play a significant role in the coming election for the offices of Senate chairman and deputy chairman. Political experts foresee more political manoeuvrings and use of money in the coming days.

Besides the independents, the support of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) — which has now become the third largest party in the Senate — has also become crucial for both the PPP and the PML-N. It will be interesting to see what strategy is adopted by the PTI. As chances of the PTI supporting the PML-N are almost non-existent, political experts believe that the former may not be in a position to announce its support for the PPP either, due to open and harsh criticism of the party by PTI chairman Imran Khan.

The PML-N and its allies, including Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, National Party and PML-Functional, will have 48 members in the new Senate that will emerge after March 12 whereas the PPP and the remaining opposition parties will have 40 members.

Independents likely to play a crucial role in elections of chairman, deputy chairman of upper house of parliament

When contacted, a senior PML-N leader expressed the hope that the party would manage to get the support of at least six independents and five Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) senators, thus making it easier for the PML-N to get the office of Senate chairman. With the support of the MQM-P and a few independents, he said, the PML-N would easily cross the 60 mark in the upper house.

The PML-N leader said the party was ready to offer the office of deputy chairman to any other party for which negotiations were expected to start in a few days.

On the other hand, despite getting more than expected seats in the Senate elections, the PPP will now have to work hard to woo the smaller parties and groups, if it wants to retain the office of Senate chairman for the next three years.

Political experts believe that to achieve this objective, the PPP leadership has no choice but to nominate incumbent chairman Raza Rabbani again for the slot. Otherwise, they say, the PPP might not get support from the other parties, including the MQM-P and the PTI.

Sources in the PPP told Dawn that Mr Rabbani had not been in good books of party co-chairman Asif Zardari and this time, he was not in a mood to nominate him for the office.

According to the PPP leaders, Mr Zardari during the recent party meetings had discussed the names of Sherry Rehman and Salim Mandviwala for the top Senate office. Besides them, former Senate chairman Farooq Naek and former interior minister Rehman Malik are also among Mr Zardari’s favourites.

On the other hand, the sources claimed that Mr Rabbani enjoyed support of party chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and if the young chairman was authorised to nominate the candidate, Mr Rabbani had brighter chances of being nominated again.

Interestingly, there is a group within the PML-N — though in minority — which believes that in the current situation of political polarisation in the country due to the ongoing confrontation between the ruling party and the establishment, Mr Rabbani is the most appropriate person for the office of Senate chairman.

A senior PPP leader said though it seemed an ideal situation that the PPP and the PML-N develop an understanding to avoid getting blackmailed from the smaller parties and independents, it seemed highly unlikely because the PPP could face its backlash, particularly in Punjab, in the coming general elections.

The PPP leader said the party was almost facing a revolt in Punjab due to the past policy of supporting the PML-N during the PTI-Pakistan Awami Tehreek sit-in and it was only after the Panama Papers case verdict that the PPP had changed its policy.

“We had been dubbed friendly opposition and people used to say that the country’s largest two parties had done a ‘muk muka’ (covert understanding). And if the two parties enter into any agreement on issue of Senate chairman and deputy chairman, the PPP may have to face its repercussions in the general elections,” said the party leader, who is believed to be a close confidant of Mr Zardari.

“We have support of required members in the 104-member Senate and, therefore, I hope we will not face any difficulty in getting our man elected as the chairman,” said PML-N information secretary Mushahidullah Khan.

He said despite all odds, the results of the elections were exactly up to their expectations. He said the PML-N had contested the elections against the establishment which had given a free hand to the PPP and the PTI in the polls. The change of government in Balochistan and the victory of six independents from the province, he said, were clear proof how the establishment provided an opportunity to Mr Zardari to play his role in Balochistan.

Similarly, Mr Khan also expressed his surprise over the PPP’s victory in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which, according to him, was not possible without a “PPP-PTI nexus.”

However, he said, the PML-N was ready to talk to every party, including the PPP and the PTI, to seek cooperation in the coming elections of Senate chairman and deputy chairman.

When contacted, PPP spokesman Farhatullah Babar said that his party had not so far finalised any candidates for the offices of Senate chairman and deputy chairman and all names being circulated in media circles were “speculations.”

He said the party would analyse the Senate results after which they would devise a strategy for elections of the chairman and deputy chairman.

Published in Dawn, March 4th, 2018