9
NO matter what news dominates the headlines this year, rest assured 2018 will be all about the scheduled general elections which will, hopefully, further cement representative rule in the country.
One hopes that yet another transition where the baton passes from one elected government to another will lead to more self-assured governance where matters of import to the masses dominate the agenda rather than the echoes of dark and destabilising palace intrigues.
Less than a year before the electorate gets a shot at choosing its representatives again, is it possible to look at what differing political scenarios are likely to influence choices at the ballot box? Admittedly, a tall ask but we will give it a shot. Most of the uncertainty comes into the equation because nobody knows what the Supreme Court’s final verdict in the Panama Papers case will be.
If the court were to let Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif remain in office, then the election result would be easier to predict as the PML-N will be given a huge boost and a moral victory. It will claim its leaders were asked to withstand the most rigorous scrutiny and that they emerged with flying colours.
What if the judges were to agree with the two out-voted members of the original Panama bench who found that Nawaz Sharif had failed to pass the integrity test, and hence could not hold public office?
The positive message is that the only route forward lies via electoral politics and no other option seems to be on the table.
In such an event, much would depend on whether, post-JIT, the prime minister’s heir apparent, Maryam Nawaz, is allowed to emerge unscathed as she was by the original bench. If she is left free to step forward to lead her party, she will also have the benefit of a political martyr; the battle will be interesting to say the least.
In Pakistan’s hereditary politics, the third scenario for the PML-N could be that both father and daughter are disqualified, and then the attention turns to Shahbaz Sharif who, though long seen by many in the party as prime ministerial material, has been left to keep things in shipshape order in the power bastion of Punjab as a result of a family arrangement.
As these scenarios are considered, I realise that none appear too unkind to the PML-N. The irony that repeated elections have demonstrated in Pakistan is that the issues the voting public seems to consider important have nothing to do with the thinking of the chattering classes even though the latter’s views may dominate the media discourse.
So, even if the PML-N loses its top two leaders on charges of financial impropriety, or even graver charges, will that be enough to erode its support in its power bastion? And to the point that a contender such as Imran Khan’s PTI will upstage it in Punjab?
A flurry of leaders joining the PTI from other parties including the PPP does give the impression that Imran is being seen as a serious prime ministerial alternative and that’s why ‘electable’ politicians are making a beeline for his party.
Another factor worth noting is that where the PML-N may have the front runner in every, or most, Punjab constituencies, the runners-up are not far behind as even the usually one-sided by-election results have often underscored by being more closely contested than in the past.
So, the difference between the two parties in Punjab may not be as favourably stacked on the PML-N’s side as many would imagine. Of course, whether the PTI’s voter comes out as enthusiastically for the electable (yet needing a whitewash) as in the case of some of the original party diehards in 2013 will also determine the fate of the electoral outcome.
If the PTI can retain its support in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and is able to damage the PML-N in Punjab, it will put itself in the running to head a possible coalition government with the major winner(s) from Sindh where the PPP, for all its shortcomings, appears largely unchallenged in the rural areas.
Urban Sindh is a different story; it isn’t clear at all that whether, despite all his politics of self-harm, Altaf Hussain has been dislodged from his pre-eminent position. Whether or not the Altaf-specific crackdown, the emergence of the Farooq Sattar and Mustafa Kamal factions, and efforts of the other parties will bear fruit will only be known closer to the polls or even after.
The man his critics blame for single-handedly destroying the PPP and his admirers call the genius political game-player, Asif Ali Zardari, seems keen to consolidate his hand in Sindh, even trying to mop up whatever he can in the cities.
This can only hint at what he sees as a possible coalition taking shape after the next election. If, at all, the country again heads towards a weak, unsteady coalition following the next polls it would also mean seeing unlikely bedfellows coming together.
How far, for example, will Imran Khan be prepared to go — as a corollary to his making allowances for the electables even when they don’t meet his stringent moral, clean criteria — when he may have to depend on such elements/parties for government formation?
These are all valid questions to seek answers to. Inherent in them is the positive message that the only route forward lies via electoral politics and no other option seems to be on the table.
As the country goes down the path of democratic transition and the democratic process takes firmer root, various institutions will also feel encouraged to remain in their constitutionally defined domains, and the pointless and futile attempts at power grabs today in the name of patriotic duty or other equally spurious reasons will also become a thing of the past.
The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
Published in Dawn, July 8th, 2017
