PESHAWAR: The recent conflicts and massive displacement from Fata have triggered a host of demographic trends that may render population figures about the region delivered by census 2017 both unrealistic and questionable.

In background discussion and interviews, the relevant officials predicted marked changes in the demographic landscape of the tribal region keeping in view displacement, normal migration, destruction of private properties and absence of methodology for counting of IDPs, living outside Fata, in the census forms.

The census staff also observed decline in human population and residential quarters in Fata despite growth rate of 2.7 per cent (1998 census). The Fata population was around 3.18 million in the 1998 census.

Correct headcount, house listing not easy in tribal areas owing to displacement of people, destruction of properties

The region had witnessed mass displacement and destruction of houses between 2005 and 2014 owing to lawlessness and subsequent military operations. Share in National Finance Commission award and representation in National Assembly and provincial assemblies are determined on the basis of population.

“There are multiple factors. But the foremost reason, which put negative impact on Fata population, is displacement,” said a senior official at Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the prime body that carried out population census.

“The irony is that PBS did not develop tool or mechanism for the internally displaced persons or people, who temporarily migrated from Fata to settled areas of the country, to count them in their native areas,” he said. He added that controversies would emerge after the census report was made public.

“The report will trigger controversies about the population, particularly Fata,” said the official.

Coding and editing of census data, both head count and houses, is underway and PBS is likely to make public the first report in last week of July. Prior to its launching, the report would be put up before Council of Common Interest for approval. Countrywide population census was launched on April 15 and completed on May 25.

Sources confided to Dawn that there were several pockets in Fata where census was not conducted. According to details, house listing and head count were dropped in Datakhel tehsil of North Waziristan comprising 126 blocks.

Five blocks in Baizai tehsil of Mohmand Agency adjacent to the Afghan border were not counted. The exercise was cancelled in 14 blocks of upper sub-division of Orakzai Agency and four blocks (roughly 1,000 houses) in Angoor Adda area of South Waziristan Agency.

The Pakistan government under a deal had handed over a piece of land surrounding Angoor Adda checkpost and few villages, having roughly 10,000 population, to Afghanistan in 2016 to end border dispute between the two countries.

Head counting and house listing in some pockets of central tehsil of Kurram Agency were not conducted because local people after repatriation had shifted back to settled areas owing to non-availability of basic facilities like shelter, health and education.

One source said that enumerators were not allowed to carry out census in Datakhel area of North Waziristan Agency apparently due to security reasons. “The army may conduct census in Datakhel,” he said.

Officials said that enumerators were not allowed to visit blocks in Baizai owing to security situation. “Baizai virtually serves like buffer zone between Pakistan and Afghanistan,” said an official. He said that there was no sign of life in the “buffer zone.”

Fata Disaster Management Authority (FDMA) claimed that 90 per cent of the IDPs had been repatriated to their homes in Fata. But the claim was contradicted by census staff. An official said that over 1,200 displaced families were counted only in Jalozai, Nowshera district. He said that IDPs and normally migrated people from tribal areas had settled in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab.

“IDPs residing in a particular area had been counted and included in the population of the area they are presently living in,” said the official, adding that normal migration had also taken place from Fata and tribal people had been counted in the population of the area where they currently resided.

Officials said that normal migration had taken place in all tribal agencies except Bajaur. They said that population of Bajaur Agency was stable in the entire Fata.

“Population of Peshawar will be around 4.5 million in the coming census report because of migration from Fata and others areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” said one source.

FDMA has de-notified around 64,000 families from Fata as displaced ones because these families did not want to go back to their native lands owing to lack of opportunities of livelihoods and facilities in Fata.

Like headcount, the officials predicted decline in the number of houses in the coming census report because of the widespread destruction. Officials, who visited militancy-affected pockets in South Waziristan, North Waziristan, Khyber, Orakzai and Kurram agencies, saw damaged houses, lying empty.

“Teams carrying out house listing were unable to get information about the owners of the damaged houses, because nobody was there,” said an official. He added that empty houses were not enlisted in the census process.

“Like human population, the graph of house numbers and commercial properties will also come down in the coming census report,” said the official.

He said that commercial centres like Miramshah Bazaar, Mirali Bazaar and other small business points in the militancy-hit area had been demolished in the military operations and enumerators could not collect data of destroyed properties.

Published in Dawn, June 12th, 2017