NEW DELHI, Dec 26: Buoyed by handsome wins in recent state elections, a booming economy and an overall “feel good” factor, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee may go for an early election in April or May, analysts say.

Parliamentary elections are due before October, but already there is intense pressure on Mr Vajpayee to hold them in the next few months to cash in on the surging fortunes of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

A final decision is expected at a party meeting to be held on Jan 11 and 12 in Hyderabad.

After a string of state election losses, the BJP won by huge margins in three of the four Hindi-speaking and politically key states that went to the polls on Dec 1, raising speculation about early general election.

Mr Vajpayee is playing his cards close to his chest, but has told party workers to get ready to face “the coming challenge”.

“There is no room for complacency after the victory in the three states as time is of essence,” he said on Thursday at a celebration for his 79th birthday.

A big element favouring early polls is the “feel good” factor in the country, with economists hailing 2003 as a bumper year for the economy following good monsoon rains along with a booming stock market.

The economy is expected to grow by around seven per cent — almost near the government’s long-term target of 8-10 per cent.

Another factor tempting Atal Behari Vajpayee to call early election is confusion in the Congress party following its rout in the state polls.

“The total disarray of the Congress camp is a huge advantage for BJP,” said political analyst Yashwant Deshmukh. “The opposition is absolutely non-existent. Sonia Gandhi’s (the Congress chief) ratings are continuously plummeting. There seems to be no credible alternative to Vajpayee.”

A slew of opinion polls have shown Sonia Gandhi way behind Mr Vajpayee in the ratings.

Political sources also say an April or May election is being favoured as the government can ill-afford another “populist” budget after big concessions were given to the middle class, the BJP’s main support base, in the last budget.

Yet another factor is that two key allies of the BJP, which heads the more than 20-party National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition government, want general election around April to time with polls in their respective states.

And reciprocal peace initiatives with Pakistan after the two countries came to the brink of war last year have raised the country’s spirits.

“If there is a feel good factor internally, externally too there is a feel good factor,” Deshmukh said.

Mr Vajpayee is due to visit Islamabad for a Jan 4-6 Saarc summit and is likely to meet President Pervez Musharraf, a move analysts say could further break the ice at the highest level. —AFP