MEXICO: Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman’s abrupt exit to face charges in the US marks the probable end of the career of Mexico’s most notorious drug cartel boss, and a delicately timed gesture by Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who faces a new and hostile US administration.

Observers differed on whether Guzman’s extradition was a final-hour salute to outgoing President Barack Obama, or a gesture of obeisance to incoming President Donald Trump. Pena Nieto is already deeply unpopular, in part for his perceived mishandling of Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric on Mexico.

Deputy Attorney General Alberto Elias Beltran said at a Thursday night news conference that the timing was due to a court ruling, not politics.

“It was resolved today, and we under terms of the international treaty had to make the handover immediately,” he said. But many considered the timing to have been carefully planned.

“It could be a coincidence, but I think that’s unlikely,” Mexican security analyst Alejandro Hope said, noting it came the last full day of Barack Obama’s presidency and hours before Trump’s inauguration.

“They could not send him after Trump was inaugurated because the interpretation would have been that of a tribute,” Hope said. “But maybe they wanted to do it close enough so that both administrations the outgoing and the incoming could really make some political hay out of this.” Others saw it as a reward to Obama and a shot across the bow of Trump, who has called immigrants coming illegally from Mexico criminals and “rapists” and vowed to build a border wall and make Mexico pay for it.

“The Mexican government decided to move up the time frame because they didn’t want Trump to be in the presidency when they sent him over,” said Michael Vigil, the former head of international operations for the US Drug Enforcement Administration. “They wanted Obama to take credit. They wanted to send a message to Trump that they won’t be bullied.” Samuel Logan of the business and security consulting firm Southern Pulse said it also probably involved practical concerns. Guzman has escaped twice from Mexican prisons, and Pena Nieto has more pressing concerns on his hands like the fast-rising Jalisco New Generation cartel, known as the CJNG.

Published in Dawn January 21st, 2017