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FOR many, the view is clear. Politicians have ruined Pakistan and will keep doing so. But all is not lost. A Lee-like giant or a set of heroes will soon come and take us quickly to our inevitable great future, putting democracy on hold. The vision is melodramatic. A nation taken from the pits to dizzying heights by heroes who subscribe to the virtue formula: free will, hard work, honesty, unity and sincerity.
Another vision is more melodramatic. Politicians cause collapse or revolution, reflecting divine ire against sinful nations. But from this chaos emerge heroes who quickly airlift all Pakistanis on a magic carpet to a new world, as Indians below watch with awe and envy. Let us scrutinise these visions using social science tools, even though sages argue that academic laws fail this exceptional nation, promised glory at birth since it was made in Islam’s name.
Have politicians ruined Pakistan? Such views wrongly compare it with Western or Tiger states. But one should compare us with Saarc states given similar history, culture, etc. True, my analysis ‘“How we compare’ on Dec 6, 2015 in Dawn shows us ahead of Afghans only regionally. But our rank was low due to terrorism and social indices. But terrorism is mainly the legacy of autocrats while our elected regimes usually spend more on social sectors. Economically too, we lag behind neighbours. But the situation is ordinary, not ruinous, and is improving slowly.
Others grumble that by its eighth year and after one civilian transition, democracy should by now have delivered major reforms in accountability, police, courts and bureaucracy. But are eight-year-old democracies able to do that? Near-septuagenarian democracies do only somewhat better. Thus, misconception exists about how and how quickly democracies mature. Nor is political collapse or revolution likely. Such outcomes mostly occur under autocrats.
Our trajectory is not a melodramatic one.
But surely if we could somehow get titans in power, they will shepherd us to glory quickly by adhering to the virtue formula, like Tiger states and bucking regional trends. This reflects a naïve view of Tigers. They prospered because of titanic global changes as European, Japanese and US capital were searching for cheap industrial sites. Tigers found favour not mainly by practising the virtue formula better but since they were frontline states against USSR and had earlier industrial experience under colonialism.
No state has prospered hugely solely by being virtuous without major capital flows. But for Pakistani sages, virtue has endless potential and can replace capital flows if practised hard enough. Hardworking and skilled circus acrobats perform astonishing feats by using ropes dangled by circus masters. To claim that they can perform even without ropes by working harder is silly. So is claiming that virtue is sufficient for states.
Lacking the breaks the Tigers got, most developing states grow slowly. This affects governance, which improves not due to democracy or autocracy but when the incentive structure of national elites changes. Improved governance is not the cause of development initially but development catalyses governance before the relationship becomes a virtuous circle. Elites enjoying major external breaks have incentive to improve governance since such opportunities require that. Otherwise, poor governance and unfair economy suits elite interests better. Heroes rarely emerge in developing states but when they do without major external breaks, they fail to produce rapid change.
Pakistan has CPEC. However, China is not viewing it as a cheap site for its industries but as a transit route to further its own progress; $46 billion is not big enough to make us a Tiger given our size and hence elite invectives to improve governance will not change much.
Thus, our most likely trajectory is not a very melodramatic one, I am afraid. No heroes or towering statespersons; no dramatic and fast changes in development or governance; politicians ever so slowly pushing Pakistan’s plodding bullock cart forward; corruption and governance scores improving very slowly, with reversal, zig-zags and plateaus; no grand reforms but only piecemeal, haphazard ones forced by situation; yet no collapse or revolution.
Democracy will perform weakly and improve very slowly but autocracy will make things worse. So, we likely face an ordinary and boring future, like most developing states, under global capitalism. But nobody— Marxists, jihadists or conservatives — have ideas to produce rapid change.
The prognosis is not exciting but it does not justify undemocratic options. Instead of exhorting generals, people should join initiatives for progressive change. But this option is not a new short cut. No state has prospered rapidly due to such efforts alone. Nor will Pakistan, though the pace of change may pick up. But many attentions will still remain riveted wistfully at those tantalising low chances of miracle that I have not closed fully being a cautious scientist.
The writer heads INSPIRING Pakistan, a progressive policy unit.
Published in Dawn, July 5th, 2016
