LAHORE: Punjab is reeling at 50pc of its wheat sowing target at a time when it should have completed the task to give optimum time to crop before harvest.

Normally Nov 20 is considered the most suitable day when wheat showing should be completed but Punjab hopes to close the month around 70pc of its total target which also is a matter of debate this year.

The federation had fixed it at 17.20 million acres for Punjab whereas the province is targeting 16.50 million acres. The current figure of little over eight million acres makes 50pc of the provincial target. Although the planners in the province think that first part of December would complete the sowing target, they are worried about temperature drop. “If there is any sudden drop in mercury, which is a distinct possibility, the seed germination would suffer badly and hit the final yield,” said an official of the department.

“So far, the temperature is behaving and giving the planners optimism that they will meet the target but things can certainly go awry if there is some unexpected change,” he said and claimed that the situation could have been better had there not been late rains in Sargodha and Faisalabad division which delayed rice harvesting and impacted the wheat sowing process.

Federal, provincial planners have different figures

“By chance, the fertiliser position, especially that of Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) is also giving much hope to the planners,” said an official of the Punjab Agriculture Department. The massive stocks, which had been built during the last few months of liberal import, have pushed the prices down even beyond the level of subsidised rates. Currently, DAP is being sold even at Rs3,200 per bag, which is Rs200 below the subsidised rate.

“The prime minister had announced Rs500 per bag subsidy when the DAP price was Rs3,900 per bag, which means the market price should have been Rs3,400. But it has dropped to Rs3,200 per bag generally, and even lower in certain pockets, he said.

The farmers, however, attribute the drop in prices to their diminished capacity of applying DAP rather than healthy stocks. “Most farmers cannot afford this expensive fertiliser, especially in the rice zone and those areas where cotton suffered heavy pest attacks,” said Abad Khan of the Farmers Associates Pakistan.

He said the sellers knew that DAP was only applicable this month and it would turn into financial liability by second part of December. That’s why they were throwing it out now but there were only few buyers, he said.

Most farmers in the province, he said, were facing double jeopardy. “They are in debt because of price crash of previous crop and have no money to invest on the next one. A majority of them is now supplementing their income by selling livestock to compensate on both sides. In these circumstances, it is hard for any outsider to assess true picture of sowing and delay, leave alone planners who have vested interest in exaggerating sowing figures and fertiliser market. The farmers will sow wheat because they don’t have any other choice. But their investment (or lack of it) would determine the final yield,” he concluded.

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2015