KARACHI, Oct 4: How much credibility the government enjoys on its economic performance since October 1999? Perhaps very little. General public and even many businessmen are sceptic of the government’s tall claims of economic performance. In the last four years, whenever any news story that challenged official poverty ratio, growing economic disparities between classes and regions in Pakistan, growth rate, exports increase, public sector development funds spending or on any economic issue that questioned official claims, the government missed no time in issuing a tough worded clarification that put into question the competence of a journalist.

Has there been any reversal in poverty rise phenomenon during the last three years? Did the country utilize Rs134 billion Public Sector Development Programme during 2002-03? What has been the growth rate during 2002-03, 5.1 per cent or 4.6 per cent or even less? And did exports grow by 21 per cent in the last fiscal? What is the explanation of unusual export growth in Dubai and Saudi Arabia during 2002-03? How much has been the budget deficit in 2001-02?

The government has set for itself a very ambitious growth target for the current financial year. It wants to mop up Rs510 billion revenue from a market that is shrinking and there is virtually no new investment. The growth target is 5.3 per cent supported by more than four per cent growth in agriculture and over eight per cent in large scale industry. Reports say that cotton crop in southern Punjab is under attack from pests. Pakistan market is swarmed with cheap Chinese industrial products that have virtually crippled the local industry. Utilities cost is on the rise and despite rains both Punjab and Sindh are not expected to get their due share of waters.

This being on ground reality how would one accept the finance minister’s claim to reduce poverty by 25 per cent in the next five years by increasing economic growth. President Pervez Musharraf himself claimed early May this year of a reduction in poverty ratio during 2001-02 when he informed members of the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry that the rising trend of poverty had been reversed by his government and an improvement of 0.8 per cent had been brought about in poverty ratio.

But all the multilateral aid agencies — the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank — have recently expressed concern at the alarming poverty rise in Pakistan during last three years.

Milan Zavadjil, who led an IMF mission last month to Pakistan, told a press conference in Islamabad on September 8 that like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, the IMF too, was concerned over rising poverty in Pakistan. Who should be believed, the government or the donors? But no clarification from the government.

A year earlier in late September 2002, the government did not take more than 24 hours to contradict a Dawn story that blamed it for suppressing an official survey report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics that showed poverty was on the rise during 2001 and 2002. In its contradiction, the government asserted “some definitional problems emerging” in processing of the survey report and that “data is being cross checked and refined.”

On September 16 this year, Dr A.R. Kamal of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics rejected objections of the Ministry of Finance on the integrated household survey report. He had advised the government to carry out a fresh household survey in the country.

The government was again very prompt in issuing a clarification of a news item that suggested that public sector development spending in 2002-03 was far too slow and that there are reasons to doubt if the proposed Rs160 billion development fund would be fully utilized.

A Planning Commission document has revealed that out of the proposed Rs134 billion development outlay for 2002-03, the actual expenditure till March 2003 was Rs78 billion, which is roughly 58 per cent of the total plan. In the remaining last quarter of the last fiscal year, the government hastily released the funds that were never utilized. The Asian Development Bank took notice of this gimmick and came out with a harsh statement on slow releases of development funds.

The country’s exports during 2002-03 improved by over 22 per cent to touch $11.16 billion figure. Press reports suggest that the Central Board of Revenue is investigating the unusual more than 50 per cent export to Dubai and also in Saudi Arabia.

Exports to Dubai increased to about $967 million from $650.67 million a year earlier and to Saudi Arabia to $450.66 million from $300 million. Many businessmen are convinced that exporters have remitted that retained foreign exchange in Dubai and Saudi Arabia to Pakistan in garb of exports. “It is not actual exports,” one of the leading exporter said. The CBR was reported to be investigating the issue as it involved payment of rebate but findings have not been made public.

Leaders of the PML-N have recently challenged the government’s claim of foreign debt reduction. They have blamed the government for fudging the figures. The present set of finance managers blamed the PML-N and PPP governments for fudging the growth figures and now time has come for the present government to defend itself on same charges.