CLAIMS that a breakaway faction of the banned TTP, the Jamaatul Ahrar, led by Omar Khalid Khorasani, has rejoined the original umbrella organisation, the TTP led by Mullah Fazlullah, and that a third militant outfit, Mangal Bagh’s Lashkar-i-Islam, has also joined forces have come as no surprise. The new pact formalises what had been an informal working arrangement in place for a while, including the sharing of suicide bombers for each others’ operations. Neither is the timing of the announcement particularly surprising. All three groups have come under pressure in their hideouts on the Afghan side of the Pak-Afghan border and attempted to reassemble in the Tirah region of Khyber Agency — the very region in which the Pakistan military has launched the next phase of the Khyber-I operation. This week, the military has claimed dozens of militant casualties in air strikes in the region and that is expected to be only the start of intense action against militants there, following on from the push in the flatter terrain of the Bara region late last year.

As ever, in the opaque world that is the frontline fight against militancy, there are several big questions. To begin with, how much cooperation from the Afghan government and security forces — to stop militants from fleeing across the border again — will the Pakistani state be able to expect? The recent improvement in ties between the Pakistani government and the security establishment on one side and the Afghan government and intelligence and security forces on the other is the key to obtaining and sustaining Afghan cooperation. It almost certainly includes the quid pro quo of urging the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table with the Afghan government. It remains to be seen how durable that new, untested compact is. The other question: is Khyber-I going according to plan? The military had always suggested there would a second phase starting this month, but the general experience in military operations here is that the ability to clear and hold is relatively easy as compared to being able to return an area to normality and keep the militants out after the main phase of the operation is over. Finally, the militants themselves have proved to be far more resilient and adaptable than is often assumed. Once again, in the face of intense pressure, they have banded together and may seek to survive in enough form to be able to bounce back at a later point. Is there a strategy to prevent that?

Published in Dawn, March 15th, 2015

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