ISLAMABAD: The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations says overall damage to this year’s paddy crop is expected to be minimal despite some “severe localised losses”.

In a special report on the post-flood situation in Pakistan, the FAO says the 2015 rice exports are forecast at 3.5 million tonnes, about 6 per cent higher than the previous year, based on this year’s anticipated production.

The recently-released official forecast has put this year’s paddy production at 10.1 million tonnes, just one per cent lower than the 2013 bumper level and 11pc above the previous five-year average.

Harvesting of the 2014 Kharif crops, including rice and maize, is currently underway and will continue till December. Pakistan is the world’s fifth-largest rice exporter.

Rainfall between June and August has generally been favourable in the main cereal-producing areas, benefiting crop development.

However, heavy monsoon rains during the first fortnight of September caused the eastern rivers of the country — Chenab, Jhelum, Sutlej and Ravi — to overflow, resulting in floods and landslides in eastern parts of Punjab, Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

The FAO in its latest forecast puts this year’s maize crop including the spring and Kharif seasons at 4.5m tonnes, marginally below last year’s record output.

Meanwhile, planting of the 2015 Rabi wheat crop, mostly in irrigated areas, is underway and the abundant rain in September improved water availability for irrigation, benefitting the season’s crop.

The official target for next year’s wheat crop is set at 26m tonnes, 3pc up from this year’s bumper level. The projected increase is due to anticipated higher yields, as a result of increased use of improved seed varieties.

Reflecting the record 2014 wheat production, wheat imports for the 2014-15 marketing year (May/April) are forecast to decrease from the high level of the previous year to 50,000 tonnes, which is still considerably above the previous five-year average.

The report says prices of wheat and wheat flour remained unchanged or decreased slightly in late October and were below their levels at the same time last year in most markets, reflecting ample domestic availabilities from the 2014 record harvest, completed earlier in the year.

According to the report, overall food supply conditions are stable following consecutive years of relatively good harvests and adequate levels of imports.

However, recurrent floods over the last five years have exacerbated the food security situation of the affected population.

The latest official assessments, as of October 15, indicate that the floods last September caused a loss of hundreds of lives, displaced at least 500,000 people and adversely affected more than 2.5m. Severe damage to housing, infrastructure and agriculture has also been reported.

In Tharparkar district, food insecurity has aggravated since early 2014 due to cereal production shortfalls caused by poor rains for the second successive season, coupled with loss of small animals, mostly sheep and goats, following a viral disease outbreak.

Published in Dawn, November 1st, 2014