At a time when the Rabi crops were facing water shortage of up to 20pc, four spells of spring rains are good news for the agriculture sector, raising hopes of increased kharif crops.

The provinces told the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) that the wheat crop had reached maturity stage and they did not need water in the wake of the unexpected rains that began in the month of March and were still partly continuing.

While briefing the federal finance minister on the crops situation, Sikandar Hayat Bosan, Minister for National Food Security said on March 28 that all the four provinces had confirmed that overall wheat production this year would exceed the target of 25 million tonnes. The production of potato is expected to be over 2.7 million tonnes. Since total consumption of the commodity is 1.7 million tonnes, the country will have one million tonnes of surplus potato this year.

The Irsa took full advantage of Nature’s blessing and stored about 2 MAF rain water in Tarbela and Mangla dams by March 31. The March rains increased running water in the four rivers by more than 20,000 cusecs, signalling an end to the usual water shortage of 15-20pc during sowing season of Kharif crops.

However, the Irsa high-ups still wanted to be cautious and intended to declare 5pc shortage but then agreed to a suggestion from the Sindh government that there was no reason to do so, since reservoirs have sufficient water. The Irsa chairman said later that the advisory committee had taken all decisions on the basis of consensus among all the provinces. The rains, he said, had cast a beneficial impact on standing crops.

According to an Irsa spokesman, the regulatory body had approved water availability estimates of 107.84 million acre feet (MAF) for the Kharif season as worked out by its technical committee on March 25. Besides, the Irsa decided to carry forward about 10.38MAF water from the storage in two dams into the next Rabi season starting in October because water for Kharif crops was more than sufficient. The Kharif cropping season starts from April-June and lasts until October-December in different parts of the country. Rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize and mash are some of the key crops of the season.

While the March rains were a good news for Pakistan, they turned into untimely and bad news for India. According to its media, the rains were likely to hit the overall yield of wheat in north India and other Rabi crops in Madhya Pradesh and have already damaged the standing crops of pulses, oilseeds, and grapes. However, the situation is not so alarming in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.

The spring rains have produced several ‘firsts’. It is for the first time since mid-1990s that there will be no water shortage during Kharif season. And also for the first time in recent years, the share of water to the provinces is being determined on the basis of the original 1991 Water Apportionment Accord.

Since shortages have been a regular feature, the Irsa had over the years worked out a compromise shortage sharing formula and had been distributing water to the provinces on that basis. So, this time, Punjab’s Kharif share has been fixed at 33.94MAF, followed by Sindh at 30.49MAF. Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would get a share of 2.56 and 0.82MAF, respectively.

At present, the country has 2.468 million tonnes of wheat stocks in hand and the closing stock of the commodity will be around 1.41 million tonnes at the end of the food year, according to a summary prepared by Ministry of National Food Security and Research and for Economic Coordination Committee. The wheat stocks include strategic reserves of 1.00 million tonnes being maintained by Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Cooperation.

The fact remains that the country badly needs new reservoirs to tackle water shortage which is only aggravating with time. In addition, the phenomenon of climate change is likely to reduce water availability up to 40pc. If the available water resources are not managed prudently, warns federal planning minister Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan may ‘face Thar-like drought in half of the country.’ Similarly, the impact of natural disasters such as floods that devastate crops could be reduced only if accurate and timely early warning and forecasts are issued to enable concerned personnel to do better planning and execution of evacuation and rescue operations.