ISLAMABAD, July 2: Were all the national plannings of the last thirty years based on fudged statistics? Senior economists wondered after hearing the assertion by a UN statistics department expert, Dr Griffith Feeney, at a seminar here on Monday that the population growth rate was over-enumerated in the censuses of 1972 and 1981, but understated in the 1998 census.

And most demographers present at the seminar, organized by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economists (PIDE) in collaboration with United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), agreed that the last two censuses had indeed been exaggerated due to the government policy of apportioning to provinces the development funds and National Assembly seats on the basis of population.

The 1998 census results were less skewed because of the government’s decision to delink development funds and representation in the parliament from demographic status of the provinces. This time, the tendency was to depress the figures because the objective was to satisfy the international donors about the government’s success in curbing high growth.

Nevertheless, Dr Feeney said fertility rate in Pakistan had started declining in 1980s and, consequently, the population growth rate too fell. He was certain that both the fertility and the population growth rates would continue to decline in the future.

Dr Feeney suggested that for reliability and validity of surveys, the sample size might be increased to make it more representative besides conducting post-enumeration survey to detect fictitious households.

But the reasons for this desirable declining trend in fertility rate were still unknown — whether this was occurring because of late marriage or, as claimed officially, due to reported improvement in coverage of the family planning services.

Mr Hashmy of the Federal Bureau of Statistics thought it was attributable to the latter — 100 per cent in urban areas and 85 per cent in villages.

The situation is complicated further by the fact that the male heads of Pakistani households are reluctant to report the number of females out of cultural prejudices in which the 55 years of independent existence have failed to make any dent.

The PIDE had organized the seminar as part of the project to evaluate the 1998 census in order to detect shortcomings, if any, and recommend improvements in the system for the next census.

The UNFPA had provided funds while the UNSD provided the services of Dr Feeney for extending technical assistance.

Earlier, Dr A.R. Kamal, Director PIDE, said population growth and fertility were very important issues facing Pakistan. He said more than 15 studies were being carried out on the basis of 1998 census by researchers in the PIDE and others.

The seminar was the fifth of the series organized by the PIDE since last year to invoke a debate between experts and policymakers on current issues such as foreign exchange reserves, brain drain, fiscal responsibility law, etc.

Dr Shafi Niaz, former chairman Agricultural Prices Commission, who presided over the seminar, emphasised the need for raising the capacity of data collection agencies with a view to producing data maximally proximate to reality and making them independent.

Once such survey had been completed its results should be accepted by all concerned, irrespectively of whether these suit the policy priorities of the government and its various organs.

He cited the example of a recent household survey conducted by the FBS, which was not accepted by the finance division because its findings about poverty did not fit in the rosy picture it would like the nation to believe in.

Similarly, he added, there was no consensus on how much food the country needed in a year, with the result that there might erupt a serious crisis because of doubts about whether the stocks available were enough to meet the requirements.

What to talk of strengthening these agencies, observed a senior economist, as the government had allowed two vital organizations — the FBS and the Agricultural Census Commissioner — to remain without heads for the past six months or so.