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TEHRAN: Two nights of protests by a few thousand people in Tehran hardly constitute a major threat to Iran’s religious establishment, but the timing and nature of the demonstrations suggest a bigger storm may be brewing.
Unlike most previous unrest in recent years against Iran’s conservative rulers, this week’s protests at Tehran University appear to have been largely spontaneous, with no obvious organization.
“In the past the demonstrations were more disciplined and had specific demands. This time is more dangerous because it seems to be a reflection of pent-up anger,” said a local analyst.
The protests also come amid heightened pressure on Iran from Washington over its alleged secret nuclear weapons programme and support for “terrorist” groups.
Some US officials have openly called on Iranians to rise up against their leaders — raising questions on a possible US influence on the demonstrations, especially after calls for protests came from US-based Iranian exile satellite stations.
Iran is sandwiched between Afghanistan and Iraq and some protesters seemed to be appealing directly to Washington for help to bring an end to ayatollahs’ rule in Iran.
“I came here to send a message to (US Secretary of State) Colin Powell that we want change,” said 46-year-old Parvin, near the university campus in the early hours of Wednesday.
But analysts downplayed the US influence on protesters, saying too much pressure from Washington could backfire.
“It’s entirely possible that the greater the threats coming from the US the greater the tendency for people in Iran to unite. They’re still very nationalistic,” said Ali Ansari, an expert on Iranian politics at Durham University.
PATIENCE EVAPORATING: Analysts say uncertainty in Iran is heightened by the fact that six years after President Mohammad Khatami’s election, patience with his stalled attempts to bring greater democracy, justice and social freedoms has evaporated.
Demonstrators on Wednesday and Thursday pilloried President Khatami just as much as the conservatives who have blocked his reforms.
“We’ve had a kind of fragile stability in Iran for some time. But there’s seething anger underneath and for most people it’s no longer a question of reform, it’s a question of change,” Mr Ansari said.
One European diplomat in Tehran said: “We could be seeing the early murmurings of something bigger”.
The reason for the sudden outbreak of the Tehran protests is unclear. Similar demonstrations late last year were sparked by a death sentence verdict against reformist academic Hashem Aghajari, who had questioned the conservatives’ right to rule.
Those protests, led by students, fizzled out after two months when Ayatollah Khamenei ordered a review of Mr Aghajari’s sentence.
This week’s unrest may be connected to the upcoming anniversary of violent protests there in July 1999.
But this time the small numbers of students have been joined by up to 3,000 people, many of whom said they answered calls to attend a rally at Tehran University broadcast on US-based Iranian exile satellite stations, which although banned in Iran, are widely watched on illegal receivers.
The channels — which hawks in Washington champion as useful tools in destabilizing Iran’s conservative rulers — have called for tens of thousands to protest in the streets of Tehran on Friday.
Witnesses say the protesters came from a wide range of social backgrounds and often in family groups. The slogans they chanted were among the toughest heard in recent years, including direct slurs against Ayatollah Khamenei and President Khatami.—Reuters
