LAHORE: The Left-Right alignment, which emerged in the 1970 election, the first election on an adult franchise basis in the country, is likely to die down 43 years later in nation’s second critical election in 2013, says a paper released by Pildat here on Monday.

Results of the May 11 polls as well as future of ‘military’s oversight system’, which came into being in the 1988 election, are uncertain for Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani who has co-authored the paper titled ‘The First 10 General Elections of Pakistan – A Story of Pakistan’s Transition from Democracy Above Rule of Law to Democracy Under Ruler of Law: 1970-2013’ with Dr Hasan Askari.

Dr Gilani has looked at the statistics, while Dr Askari has analysed the events data for Pildat. The paper also analyses why the campaign is so Punjab-focused and what lies behind Nawaz-Imran rivalry, which appears to be the heart of the drive leading to the electoral bout.

In 2013, voters will realign their loyalties to make it a ‘critical election’ in the terminology of electoral studies, says the paper, tracing electoral history since 1970 culminating in the 10th election on May 11 -- the first under the rule of law.

The profile of national economy and society has been changing over the 10 elections. Alongside, state structures, both civilian and military, have also been changing. In many ways, political players playing out the 2013 election is a product of interaction between evolving social conditions and state structures.

The paper looks at the triangular relationship among social changes, political players and state institutions, never in complete step with each other.

Dr Gilani said the army oversight system was set-up in 1988 on the basis of three components – presidency, 8th Amendment (a reference to 58-2b) and political cell of agencies. It worked well until 1997, but with the repeal of the 8th Amendment came in military takeover in 1999 and politicians suffered the worst humiliation during the Musharraf regime when men in uniform intervened down to union council level in deciding (the winning) candidates.

Dr Gilani told a questioner that future of the oversight system was uncertain just like results of the 2013 election for he did not believe that the political class would be ready to suffer again like in the past and this mood was manifested in tolerating taunts of friendly opposition.

About the polling day rigging, he said the notion was introduced to divert public attention from pre-poll rigging in which state machinery and taxpayers’ money was used for a particular party.

Replying to a query, he said a part of the Left vote the PPP had been enjoying had gone towards the PML-N and another to the PTI. He said 10 per cent of the Right vote had been snatched by the PTI from the PML-N.

Former federal minister Javed Jabbar, who chaired the sitting, said ideological politics still existed although the Left had taken the name of liberals. He said the Left represented enlightenment and modernism, while the Right was comparatively narrow minded towards knowledge.

He said he lamented that no research was conducted on the aspect that Awami League did not get a majority vote in East Pakistan though it won most seats on a first-past-the-post basis.

Former Sindh governor Lt-Gen retired Moeenuddin Haider said he did not believe that politicians could deliver despite having a better realisation of the problems being faced by the masses. He argued that in the ‘absence’ of army pressure and a hostile opposition the previous government could not do anything on power generation, price-hike and law and order issues.