NEW YORK: While most pollsters had declared the US presidential election too close to call before Tuesday, many gamblers had pegged the winner early and got it right.

On Nov 4, two days before US voters went to the polls to choose their next president, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said it would pay out 400,000 pounds ($650,000) to those who bet President Barack Obama would keep his job.

The odds, which had fallen to two-to-nine for Obama, were just too hard to ignore, and 75 per cent of the money staked on the election favoured the Democratic incumbent over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

“We paid out early as we like to have a bit of fun and give our customers an added incentive to bet with us,” said Claire Davies, a Paddy Power representative.On Sunday, the Dublin-based firm took out a controversial half-page advertisement in The Irish Times, stating, “Sorry Romney, you’re not black or cool. We’re paying out early for an Obama victory.” Online prediction market Intrade, also headquartered in Dublin, opened on Tuesday showing Obama with a 68.2 per cent chance of getting re-elected.

“The market, pretty much from day one, was confident of Obama getting a second term,” said Carl Wolfenden, exchange operations manager at the firm.

Intrade - which offers futures markets on everything from how high the price of fuel might go, to who will win best picture at the Academy Awards - showed Obama’s chances for re-election at over 80 per cent in early September. That slipped in October the 60 per cent to 65 per cent range.

Around 6,000 traders, three-quarters of whom were American, with the rest in Europe and Canada, bought a total of 4.1 million shares on Obama. Each share for Obama paid out $10.00.

The 3.4 million shares traded on Romney did not pay out.

“When you put your money up there, you are basically saying it isn’t who you want to win, but who you think will win, so it gives it a little bit more weight,” said Luke Rahbari, a partner at Stutland Volatility Group, which runs a hedge fund platform that trades volatility of equities and commodities. “It’s probably better than the exit polls,” he said, adding that he has not traded on Intrade but looks to it to see where money is flowing.—Reuters