IN the early days of what was only Afghanistan's second presidential election, Abdullah Abdullah confided to diplomats that he never thought he would win.

He lacked a populist platform and campaigned on reform of Afghanistan's highly centralised state. But despite the unpromising start, the former eye surgeon emerged as a force to be reckoned with. Many believe he is now determined to win, even though he has a mountain to climb — according to independent analysis he is 17 percentage points behind Hamid Karzai after fraudulent votes were discounted.

One of Abdullah's closest advisers, Ahmed Wali Massoud, says Karzai has been wounded by the first-round debacle. Even now, Abdullah will struggle to attract support in the south, dominated by Pakhtuns who regard him as a Tajik (even though he is of mixed Pakhtun and Tajik descent).

However, that disadvantage could be lessened if the Taliban's campaign of voter intimidation again keeps southerners at home on polling day and if ballot box stuffing in Karzai's favour can be prevented this time round.

— The Guardian, London