SINDH’s budget for the next fiscal year is filled with sweet talk to agriculturists. Or, so it seems.

Greater allocation of expenses, larger development allocations, the continuation of several important projects and subsidy schemes — everything may sound music to ears of most farmers.

Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah presented the 2018-19 budget for the entire fiscal year, but said in his budget speech that he is seeking the authorisation of budgetary expenses for the first quarter only, leaving it to the next elected government to set their own priorities for the rest of the year.

This is like leaving room for changes in all budgetary announcements, including those related to agriculture.

Having said that, the mere announcement of a 34pc increase (from Rs7.7bn in 2017-18 to Rs10.10.36bn in 2018-19) in the current revenue expenditure and an enormous Rs10.94bn annual development spending in the agriculture sector is enough to excite agriculturists. Of the Rs10.94bn ADP, Rs5bn will cover locally envisaged development schemes (excluding new schemes) and Rs5.94bn is earmarked for foreign-funded projects.

Mr Shah, who also holds the portfolio of provincial finance minister, announced that a subsidy of Rs9.65bn would be offered to farmers for purchase of tractors, agricultural implements, solar pumps, tube wells, etc.

This might sound big and ambitious in view of the need for mechanisation and modernisation of agriculture in the province.

A cursory look at the development plan document reveals that no new development scheme has been designed

But a cursory look at the development plan document reveals that no new development scheme has been designed, though allocations have been made for 35 ongoing schemes — eight in agricultural research, 11 of agricultural extension services, one pertaining to Sindh Seed Corporation, 10 related to agriculture mechanisation, and five for agriculture water management.

Since the outgoing government has sought the budgetary expenses authorisation only for the first quarter of the next fiscal year, leaving the rest for the next government, focusing on ongoing development schemes in agriculture makes sense, officials of provincial agriculture department say. “It’ll be up to the next elected government to decide whether or not to include a new development scheme (in agriculture) in the last three quarters,” one of them says.

“Let the details of the development schemes come out and let’s see how much of the promised subsidy is for tractor buying and how much for other purposes and only then one can comment on its impact on agricultural productivity,” said an official of Sindh Chamber of Commerce and Industry reached immediately after the announcement of the budget. “Past experience shows that politically powerful landlords manage to buy subsidised tractors under the name of their servant farmers only to rent them out to the ordinary folks.”

For the next fiscal year, the provincial government has set aside Rs1.08bn under the ongoing Sindh Irrigated Agricultural Productivity Enhancement Programme. That perhaps can be helpful in boosting per-acre yields of major and minor crops, including cotton, rice, wheat, sugar cane, fruits and vegetables.

What makes this a more likely scenario is the budgetary allocation of more than half a billion rupees, under an ongoing project, to promote preservation and storage of fruits and veggies and another subsidy of Rs113m for subsidising purchase of solar water pumps and tube wells also under an ongoing scheme.

During his budget speech, the Sindh chief minister boasted of the continuation of two World Bank projects in the province’s agriculture sector, one for improving farm productivity and market access in important commodity value chains and another for improving water courses, mitigation of flood risks and introducing a high-efficiency irrigation system.

In the next fiscal year, Sindh will contribute to these projects out of the Rs5.94bn reserved for local participation in the foreign-funded projects.

The need for undertaking more extensive research on agriculture is obvious in case of all provinces. Sindh does realise this and Mr Shah boasted in his budget speech about the favourable impact of such research on agricultural output of the province and the contribution of the province in overall agricultural economy of the country.

But a little scanning of related official documents reveals that seven out of the total eight ongoing agricultural research schemes are supposed to be completed by June next year and the eighth one by June 2020.

Throw-forward costs of all of these projects, as shown in sectoral annual development plans, are huge and estimated expenses as of June this year is relatively small. “This means that though these research projects were initiated several years ago, progress on them has so far remained slower than desired,” explains a source privy to the monitoring of these schemes.

The total cost of all these projects is now Rs837m, but estimated expenses on them as of June 2018 is Rs298m which has resulted in a big throw-forward cost of Rs539m.

All of the eight above-mentioned projects are of such nature that their completion would help in boosting crop yields and set the stage for sustained high growth in the areas of major and minor crop production.

After the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, agriculture became a fully provincial subject from the 2010-11 fiscal year. Pakistan Peoples Party has been in power in Sindh even before that year, as this is its second term in the provincial government.

Agriculturists may wonder why the provincial government couldn’t implement several key development schemes in agriculture during these years. Wouldn’t it have been wiser for the provincial government to come up with a sort of provincial economic survey detailing the completion of development schemes instead of presenting a budget strategy paper?

In that case, government efforts to pursue development agenda for agriculture in 10 long years could have been highlighted and left to stakeholders to judge their veracity.

The budget strategy paper chiefly consists of projections for the next three years from 2018-19 to 2020-21. But nobody knows for sure who will be in power in the province for these three years.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, May 14th, 2018