HONG KONG: Saudi Aramco is too big to experiment. Every global stock exchange would love to handle the debut of the world’s biggest oil producer. A Reuters Breakingviews analysis weighing six market-related, political and other factors suggests New York is the most attractive locale and Tokyo a top wild-card.

Kingdom authorities reckon the fossil-fuel colossus may be worth some $2 trillion.

If only five per cent of the company is listed next year, as expected, that would translate into $100 billion of shares on offer.

Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser said this week that Riyadh’s Tadawul and one or two other venues internationally would host.

If a warm embrace of foreign enterprises is the top priority, Aramco might choose Singapore. Almost 40pc of its listed companies come from beyond its borders. That’s a higher proportion than on the half-dozen other bourses reviewed by Breakingviews. Aramco’s market value would dwarf the city-state’s exchange by almost threefold, however, and is one reason Singapore rates near the bottom.

Tokyo would be a good option for shoring up ties with a customer. Japan bought more than a third of its total crude imports from the Saudis last year. The Tokyo Stock Exchange though it has accommodated no oil and gas IPO of significance since 2010 and is the least welcoming to foreign companies also could provide ample liquidity. That helped it place second overall in the Breakingviews rankings.

Strip out oil ties and London jumps to the second spot, followed jointly by Hong Kong and Toronto. Tokyo then would fall, and sit ahead of only Singapore and Australia.

Aramco also may have a soft spot for the British capital given its board includes oil grandees Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and Anglo American, and Andrew Gould, BG Group’s former chairman.

There’s no obvious winning point for Hong Kong. Swiss commodities trader Glencore, which is also listed in London and Johannesburg, received a tepid reception in the special administrative region of China from investors in its 2011 flotation. The city is now mainly a site for IPOs from the People’s Republic.

The best destination, by far, is the New York Stock Exchange, assuming only one of the city’s exchanges gets the nod. It has the largest market capitalisation, the most trading and has led the way by a large margin on recent oil and gas listings. Even if the national climate is becoming more hostile to foreigners, the Big Apple bourse itself is notably welcoming, too. Despite many attractions elsewhere, finance fundamentals will have to come first for Aramco.

Published in Dawn, March 9th, 2017