ISLAMABAD: The deteriorating global economic outlook is jeopardising the efforts to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030 — the first UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) — according to a new study released by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The study, conceptualised and financed by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), takes into account changes in projected growth rates in both key driver economies, such as the United States, Europe and China, and in many developing countries.

Many developing countries seem likely to see a substantial downturn in economic growth over the 2015-30 implementation period of SDGs, compared with the recent years of strong growth, says the study released this week.

It estimates that the extreme poverty rate in 2030 will be 5.2 per cent, not the 4.8pc projected without the global economic downturn. This will leave an additional 38 million people still living on less than $1.90 a day, the benchmark for extreme poverty, by that year.

The poorest countries will see the greatest changes in projected declines in poverty rates, with over 5 percent of their population remaining below the poverty line. Overall 38 million fewer people will leave extreme poverty compared to earlier projections. Farm households are at particular risk in middle-income countries, with over 1.5pc more of the farming population potentially not escaping extreme poverty in these countries.

“The economic slowdown doesn’t mean that the poverty rate won’t decline substantially between now and 2030,” said David Laborde, senior research fellow at IFPRI. “But the economic downturn is hindering the effort to fight extreme poverty. And if we are serious about completely eliminating absolute poverty, we’ve got to identify the right policies and investments to raise the incomes of poor people and reduce their vulnerability to shocks, especially in rural areas.”

Robust economic growth in developing countries — which has far outpaced that of most high-income countries — contributed mightily to achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals of cutting extreme poverty by half five years ahead of its 2015 deadline.

Rural areas, where most of the world’s 900 million poor people live, will be hit hardest, with poverty both higher than in urban areas and more adversely affected by the slowdown, the study finds.

The projections offer a gloomy look at the world’s struggle to eliminate poverty, its prospects complicated by an unstable global economic environment, including events such as Brexit, large-scale migrations due to wars or climate shocks, and other problems that threaten growth.

Almost all of the countries with large numbers remaining in extreme poverty in 2030 will be in sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia, the study shows. Worldwide, more than 130 out of 189 countries will experience reduced income growth, the projections show, with the average global GDP growth rate falling from 4.1pc to 3.1pc between 2011 and 2030.

That one percentage point per year difference will effectively trap tens of millions of people in extreme poverty, unless additional steps are taken to address their predicament, it says.

Published in Dawn, September 10th, 2016