When Pakistan earns a reference in a State of the Union address by an American president, it is worth dwelling on what was said and why.

On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama had this to say when answering his own question about how to keep the US safe without becoming a global policeman: “instability will continue for decades in many parts of the world  —  in the Middle East, in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in parts of Central America, Africa and Asia. Some of these places may become safe havens for new terrorist networks; others will fall victim to ethnic conflict, or famine, feeding the next wave of refugees”.

Mr Obama’s comments are a sobering reminder of how — despite the domestic view that Pakistan has turned around its security situation and may be on the verge of an economic turnaround too — the outside world continues to perceive this country as a long-term generator of instability.

Is Mr Obama right? Will Pakistan continue to be a safe haven for terror networks, new and old? Certainly, the successes against the banned TTP give hope that Pakistan can find the will and learn how to fight militancy and terrorism.

The response to the Pathankot air force base attack also suggests that the old instinct to deny and effect cover-ups is giving way to sensible and responsible reactions.

Yet, the fight to reclaim Pakistan from terrorism, militancy and extremism is a long one — and success is far from guaranteed. As Mr Obama speculated, it is difficult to rule out new terror threats rising.

A decade ago, as Pakistan fought against Al Qaeda, it was difficult to fathom the militant Islamic State group would rise. A decade before, as jihad was redirected towards Kashmir, it would have been difficult to imagine 9/11 and Fata as a warzone. For all the military and counterterrorism successes today, Pakistan remains a society that is vulnerable to extremism and a state that has a number of weaknesses.

To win the long war, state and society will need to be transformed — a transformation that has not yet begun.

Clearly, however, the choices made by the US itself have contributed to the very instability, as in Iraq, that American presidents, past, present and future, have lamented and will bemoan. When Mr Obama said, “American leadership in the 21st century is not a choice between ignoring the rest of the world  —  except when we kill terrorists — or occupying and rebuilding whatever society is unravelling,” he identified a problem familiar to much of the rest of the world — the American superpower’s tendency to rampage like a bull in a China shop.

Historically, how much of what has gone wrong in Pakistan can be attributed in some part to the choices that the US has made? Even with Mr Obama, how sensible has US policy in this region been?

Published in Dawn, January 16th, 2016