Was there really an ISI plot to overthrow the government or was it just another conspiracy theory and a figment of the imagination? How were Mushahidullah Khan’s remarks different from those made by Khawaja Asif? Why sack one and spare the other whereas both were equally emphatic and blunt in their allegation against a former spy chief? Does it make any sense?

This is too serious a charge to leave un-investigated. The allegations made by two senior cabinet ministers cannot be dismissed as merely their personal views. Sacking Mushahidullah Khan, the minister for climate change, is not going to end the matter given the extremely tenuous nature of the civil-military relationship. It is back to a collision course when relations between the two Sharifs — the prime minister and the general — seemed to have stabilised. What is next?

Read: Mushahidullah’s bombshell upsets PML-N’s apple cart

This is certainly not the first time we have heard rumours about the generals backing Imran Khan’s dharna. What was being whispered by PML-N leaders then has now come out loud and clear. Many in the joint session of parliament had alluded to widespread apprehensions.

There were even some reports last year about the prime minister considering sacking General Zaheerul Islam as tensions heightened. But by the end of August last year, the balance of power had already shifted to GHQ for Sharif to make any such move — the risks were too high. By October 2014 Gen Zaheer had retired and the good Gen Raheel Sharif saved the system, hence goes the narrative. But is it so simple? Can one or a few generals plot the overthrow of the civil and military leadership? More importantly, why reopen Pandora’s box now?

Is it back to a collision course between the two Sharifs — the prime minister and the general?

The matter is certainly linked with the judicial commission report clearing the PML-N of any systematic rigging in the 2013 general elections. The reinforcement of legitimacy has given a newfound confidence to the Sharif government for it to bring the issue out of the closet. The first shot was fired by the younger Sharif — the all-powerful Punjab chief minister who demanded an inquiry into what is described as the “dharna plot”.

Then it was left to the loudmouth defence minister to reveal the plot and name the ‘conspirators’. They were the ISI boys — first retired Gen Shuja Pasha was alleged to have helped Imran Khan build his party, then retired Gen Zaheerul Islam was the mastermind behind the long march and ‘dharna politics’.

The ultimate bombshell, however, came from the unrestrained Mushahidullah Khan, who tells the story of the then ISI chief confronted with an intercepted phone conversation regarding the PTI dharna. Little did he know that he had crossed the Rubicon.

Both the civil and military leadership have of course strongly denied the existence of any audiotape of Gen Zaheer’s alleged conversation. Yet there is an intriguing silence over the allegation of an ISI plot against the government. Why has no statement been issued by the prime minister’s office or the ISPR contradicting a charge made by the defence minister as well? Can one assume that there is some credence to the assertion? If so, why are those involved not being tried for subverting a constitutional, legitimate government?

That raises another question of whether, if there is any truth to the allegation, the ISI chief was doing all that on his own. Notionally the agency comes directly under the prime minister, but that control is nominal. It is, however, also not true that the ISI chief is a freewheeling operator who is completely autonomous. Effectively he comes under the army chief and takes orders from him. Surely the spy agency has been the main instrument in implementing the army’s domestic political agenda, but there is hardly any precedence of any ISI chief carrying out his personal political agenda.

Hence the suggestion that retired generals Pasha and Zaheer could be operating independently does not make any sense. It is hard to believe that the army chief would be unaware of the machinations of the ISI chief that also allegedly involved a plot to remove him. Is the implication that the new army chief had no control over his generals during the PTI’s storming of Islamabad? The plot thickens further.

For sure the army got deeply sucked into the political crisis triggered by the Imran-Qadri sit-in. The warning to the government to not use violence while the mob went on the rampage on Constitution Avenue, ransacking the PTV headquarters, was a clear indication of the army not coming to the government’s aid when it came to the crunch.

That, perhaps, encouraged Imran Khan to declare, the “umpire was about to raise his finger”. At one point military intervention seemed imminent. This is not to forget that civil and military relations had hit a low at that point on the issue of retired Gen Musharraf’s trial on treason charges. But the prolonged joint session of parliament apparently turned the tables. Meanwhile, Imran Khan failed to fulfil his promise to bring the country to a halt. The game had changed.

Yet Nawaz Sharif was not the clear winner. He emerged from the crisis weaker, with the army expanding its authority. It is not Sharif the prime minister but Sharif the general who now appears to be in the driving seat — taking the lead on every major issue. Not surprisingly the general has pushed the military’s mass popularity rating to an all-time high.

In the post-dharna period it has been more of a situation of power-sharing, with the civilian Sharif becoming increasingly dependent on the other Sharif, the general, for internal security. It seemed that the prime minister did not mind the military occupying greater space so long as his own government was secure. But then, why open the can of worms now? The prime minster can hardly afford to go back to the collision course when the balance of power has already shifted to the GHQ.

The writer is an author and a journalist.

Published in Dawn, August 19th, 2015

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