Food security is designed to ensure access for all the people to nutritious and adequate quantity of food at all times and at affordable prices. Important foods include not only cereals like wheat, rice, corn but also fruits, vegetables, meat, pulses, sugar, edible oils and dairy products.

Food security is predicated on earning of a decent living for the people engaged in food production, processing and marketing of the items earlier listed. This list is not exhaustive but indicate the complexity of issues involved in addressing the food security challenges.

This entire chain constitutes the food system. Farmers engaged in production of food, are the ones who are the most heterogeneous, diverse, unorganised and inarticulate group comprising a multitude of small, marginal and large farmers facing not only the vagaries of weather, but also the brunt of government decisions, policy interventions as well as of market forces.

In Pakistan, wheat is the staple food crop followed by rice and maize in that order. These crops together account for about 94pc of the 13m hectares (approx.) that come under cultivation of all food grains. Their contribution to annual production of all food grains reported at about 34m tonnes works out to almost 98pc.

Wheat, grown on about 9m hectares annually is the most critical. It occupies the headlines due to shortage or high pricing, smuggling, surpluses or low prices, the government’s pricing policy, procurements, storage, restrictions on movement, imports/exports, etc. In view of its importance in the economy, food security and the onset of harvest season, we address some of the most important challenges and issues facing the wheat crop and its producers as they harvest their crop.

I have had the occasion to travel from Islamabad to some of the important wheat growing districts in Punjab. This article is based on my observations and assessment of the situation gleaned from my discussions with farmers and others well versed with wheat sector. in the province.

Wheat growing season, from November to April, has witnessed several ups and downs from the farmers’ perspective in general; ranging from occasional shortages of fertilisers, high prices of inputs, low producer prices of rice paddy, seed cotton, sugarcane and potatoes, to varying weather conditions.

The most important critical factor in the context of wheat crop, especially this year, was weather which remained pretty cold and dry during December and January, with some rainfall in February and plenty of rains and cool temperatures in March extending to April. As per available information, canal water supplies have been normal while severe load shedding has hit tubewell supplies rather badly adding to the harshness of cold weather in December and January.

The main initiative by the government on wheat policy front, having a bearing on the farmer’s decision on wheat crop, was a modest increase in its procurement price; from Rs1,250 to Rs1,300/40kg.The other initiatives in the recent past impacting wheat sector have been duty- free imports of poor quality wheat by the private sector and government decision to provide subsidy on wheat exports and its products.

The rain-fed wheat area accounts for 13-14pc of the total wheat area. The crop condition and harvest size in barani regions, ranging from 8 to14pc of the total depending on weather conditions, can make the difference between surplus and deficit production. This year, the weather conditions, so far, have been quite good. We should have a good harvest, above average, in barani areas, subject to weather remaining hot and dry in the next 5-6 weeks permitting harvesting and proper management of the produce.

The crop condition generally seemed very good but lot of weeds infesting wheat fields reflected poorly on seed quality and agronomic practices of the farm households. Most of the wheat fields were matured and ready for harvest but there were some field particularly in the barani tract of ‘Potohar’ which may take another week or so to permit harvesting.

Next few weeks are really crucial for our farm economy and food security. Weather permitting, rural country side will witness a lot of activity involving plenty of farm labour and machinery, both hired and supplied by farm households themselves. Many of the urban workers will also return to villages to help in wheat harvesting and threshing the produce and line up their own wheat stocks for the year as payments are in kind.

Wheat is not only important for food security reasons but also for its many forward and backward linkages in the economy. No doubt most of the wheat production, marketing, processing and distribution are in the private sector. The role of government and public sector agencies in wheat economy has substantially declined.

Nevertheless, provincial food departments and Passco remain important players and pace setters in wheat market.
Their procurement operations are going to play an important role in setting the tone and prices which the market pays the peasants for their produce.

According to the 2010 Census of Agriculture, about 60pc of the total wheat area is estimated to be contributed by the small farms operating less than 12.5 acres. These farmers individually may have a small marketable surplus but collectively they make a significant contribution to the market produce. Operating under several constraints they need all the support and facilitation in marketing their produce to meet their production, consumption and social obligations.

The writer is a professor of economics at Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, Economic & Business, May 4th, 2015

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