“IF you have tears, prepare to shed them now,” Marc Antony exhorted fellow Romans over the death of his friend. We do not need any exhortation to shed tears for some 150 of our own. Ten days after the ghastly attack in Peshawar that mowed down innocent schoolchildren and their teachers, a dastardly deed which has seared itself into our collective memory, the nation is shaken and despondent.

Over three decades of murder and mayhem — from Karachi to Fata, from ordinary bazaars and markets to Parade Lane and GHQ, from mosques to churches — claiming the lives of thousands of ordinary victims that have included Shias, Hazaras, Christians, Sunnis, intellectuals, academics, social workers, philanthropists and labourers, among countless others, has finally culminated in an atrocity beyond imagination and belief that has shocked us all into silent grief and introspection.

From our rage, the beginnings of a collective will and response appear to be taking shape. The prime minister, army chief, and heads of all the political parties deserve credit for realising the gravity of the hour. Whether they will forever ‘seize the moment’ remains to be seen.

Perceptions of mis-governance by the ruling elite have depressed the nation.

What also remains to be seen is how losing our way in this ‘dark forest’ of terror for over a decade since 9/11 has affected us. While we have inventoried our losses in terms of deaths and injuries, and attempted to collate the impact on exports, investment, jobs and government revenue, studying the qualitative psychological effect has largely eluded us.

Events such as the Peshawar atrocity induce a collective trauma and leave scars not just on the innocent victims and their family, but on society at large. Ironically, as this tragedy was unfolding on Dec 16, I was at a seminar speaking on “macroeconomic resilience”. My basic contention was that our “resilience buffers” are wearing thin after repeated crises; we are facing more frequent and more intense macroeconomic crises simply because we have not addressed the root causes.

To compound matters, the challenges posed by rapid population growth and urbanisation, and by the effects of climate change, have combined with institutional atrophy and low internal fiscal resource mobilisation, to leave us ever more vulnerable.

After my talk, an eminent psychologist from the UK (Dr Shakil J. Malik) gave his presentation. Having worked with victims of the 2005 earthquake, the two super-floods, and the IDPs from Swat and now Waziristan, Dr Malik also said that the resilience buffers of ordinary Pakistanis appeared to be declining after the ‘trauma’ of such events spread over a fairly long period of time. While I had spoken about macroeconomic buffers, Dr Malik gave a fascinating account of the state of play regarding the declining psychological ability of society to cope with such large stresses. The upshot of his presentation: “Pakistan is the victim of unremitting [and] unprecedented high levels of psychosocial toxicity.”

(This view was contested in comments from a panellist and the discussant, both of whom reiterated the conventional wisdom that Pakistanis are a very resilient nation, especially the poorest and the most vulnerable).

According to Dr Malik, the high and rising level of psychosocial toxicity is manifesting itself in post-traumatic stress disorders, anxiety, fear, depression, psychoses and a range of physical illnesses. These in turn are destabilising individuals, families, communities and society at large, with a range of behavioural outcomes such as greater aggression, violence and crime in addition to loss of effective functioning and productivity.

The economic and welfare loss from the high level of psychosocial toxicity and its prevalence over a protracted period of time is difficult to quantify. Nonetheless, it is a factor that will increasingly have to be factored into the analysis of what is happening on the ground in Pakistan, both in terms of social as well as economic developments.

To the list of disasters, conflict and terrorism which have plagued Pakistan and induced psychosocial toxicity, I would add one other factor which has collectively depressed the nation since the 1990s — perceptions of mis-governance by, and mega-corruption of, the ruling elite. In fact, I would posit that this one single factor has possibly depressed the nation more than any other over the last two decades because of its persistence and blanket effect on each and every Pakistani.

If the ruling elite, especially the political class, wants to shape the destiny of this nation and lift the gloom and doom that has befallen us, more than battling terrorists militarily, they will need to find ways for the state to assert its legitimacy once again. To do this will require exorcising the demons of corruption and bad governance that bedevil our path and imperil our future. Legitimacy of the state will flow from adherence to ‘rule of law’ and ‘social justice’. All the heads of the political parties sitting around the round-table at the multi-party conference discussing our collective response (and those that were absent such as Mr Zardari and Bilawal) would need to demonstrably set an example in this regard.

Tailpiece: For all its barbarism and atrocity, the Peshawar school attack was only the second major terrorist incident in months. There is little doubt that the military operation in North Waziristan has wrested the initiative from the militants by denying them space. That they hit back after several months of being on the defensive, and chose the softest of targets, in all senses of the word, is an indication of their weakness rather than strength. The attack also reflects a growing splintering within the TTP, with both the Afghan Taliban as well as Jamaatul Ahrar condemning the Peshawar school attack unequivocally. This gives more latitude and leverage to the military as it prepares for the battles ahead.

As this incident underscores, however, this was not the last terrorist attack on a soft target. Unfortunately, we should be prepared for more — militarily, economically as well as psychologically.

The writer is a former economic adviser to government, and currently heads a macroeconomic consultancy based in Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, December 26th, 2014