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Cyril Almeida
.— File photo
TO understand them, there’s just two dates you need to know: 1971 and 1977.
In 1971, the Pakistan Army contrived to lose half of Pakistan. In 1977, the Pakistan Army was back running Pakistan.
Six years was all it took. And if 1971-1977 happened, what’s 2008-2014? Nawaz didn’t stand a chance.
But Nawaz has also helped write his political obituary. Twice now he’s been called a liar.
First, it was the Musharraf promise: the boys let it be known that Nawaz had reneged on his government’s promise to indict and then allow Musharraf to leave the country.
Maybe the Musharraf promise had been made or maybe it hadn’t. What was alarming was that the boys were quietly letting it be known that they thought they had a deal and the PM double-crossed them.
The civilians haven’t been allowed to grow, but events — blessed, cursed, events — have grown.
In essence, the boys were accusing the PM of being a dishonourable man. That’s a perception — correct or incorrect, right or wrong — that you don’t want the boys to have.
It explains what came this week. Briefly, Nawaz himself tried to shift perceptions, to collar Imran and Qadri and stick them in next to the boys.
Immediately, the boys hit back. This time there were no leaks, no background chatter, no carefully sown doubts.
Sorry, Prime Minister, you’re a liar — it was direct, it was blunt and it’s devastating. You have to wonder if a third time will be necessary.
Why would Nawaz do it? Even if he’s right — he hasn’t lied — and they’re wrong, why would he so casually let such poison flow so freely in so vital a relationship?
Take your pick. He doesn’t care. He doesn’t know better. Or he thinks it will work. None of them really make sense. It also doesn’t matter. The mandate was already dead. Now, Nawaz will survive on sufferance — their sufferance.
You don’t make them out to be liars and stay in control of your destiny. The other thing you don’t do is call them out on their lies.
Nawaz knows plenty of their lies. As does anyone who’s dealt with the boys and dealt with people who’ve had to suffer the boys.
Stories, apocryphal and true, suffice. Just this term, Nawaz has caught them twice. Once, he was told the Taliban were lying, that there were no non-combatant captives.
Then the Achakzai line to Karzai was opened to get the real story from the other side. Nawaz knew he was being dissembled with.
How strong are they? Nawaz knows. He once told the story of the other Pakistan, the one they contrived to lose in 1971.
Nawaz went there, some years ago, and met all the big guns, the fearsome political rivals and the boys in charge there. Each one of them complained about interference and those three letters: I.S.I.
Isn’t it extraordinary? Bitter rivals they are over there, opposing camps, fiercely divided — and yet all speak about our boys and all say the same thing.
Playing all sides against each other in faraway Bangladesh? You’d think everyone has forgotten about Bangladesh, or would like to forget. But that’s our boys: they never forget.
It doesn’t take much to figure out what they can do with home advantage. So many sides, so many angles, so many games, so many Qadris and Imrans — always one bottom line: they stay strong; everyone else stays weak.
But Nawaz keeps quiet. As did Zardari. As do all the civilians. Because to call them out is to invoke a wrath that can bring all your skeletons tumbling out.
And you don’t want your skeletons to come tumbling out.
Where to now? The transition has ruptured. If that wasn’t dismal enough, there’s no one on the horizon who can help put it back on track.
So now we have to go big, to look at epochs and what makes them. There’s two that matter so far.
The boys and their system were forged in the first decade of this country’s existence. Ayesha Jalal in The State of Martial Rule has explained it more convincingly and eloquently than anyone else: in the shadow of the Cold War and in combination with regional and domestic factors, the structure of the Pakistani state was forged.
That’s the edifice, that’s the system, that’s the boys and what makes the boys the boys.
But the boys are in denial. There is a second epoch.
Fast forward to the late 1970s. Three events in quick succession, the meaning and combined effects of which the country has yet to figure out: Zia and his Islamisation; the Shia-Sunni schism reignited by revolution just when petro-dollars were coming into their own; and the Soviets wading into Afghanistan.
The civilians haven’t been allowed to grow, but events — blessed, cursed, events — have grown. Everything the boys are contending with, the big changes they have been forced into stem from those events.
See, one hundred and seventy five thousand troops in Fata fighting Islamist militants.
So change is here, we’re already living it and the boys are struggling to cope. Which means, eventually, either they’ll have to make choices or events will make the choice for them.
When the rupture does come though — when things break apart — it may not be the civilians who will get to collect the pieces and put Pakistan back together; it could be something far uglier.
But that’s the risk. Because Zardari failed, Nawaz is failing and Imran is a failure. But, most of all, because the boys think failure is victory.
That’s what got them from 1971 to 1977. And that’s what’s got them from 2008 to 2014.
The writer is a member of staff.
Published in Dawn, August 31, 2014
Comments (66) Closed
So painfully honest. I hope your voice is not silenced and your clarity is not shuttered in the difficult days I see ahead.
Stay safe, my friend!
WOW!! Cyril, what an insight. You have hit the nail on the head.
Democracy is an evolutionary process. In Pakistan democracy is not perfect. It was never allowed to grow and maintain as a 'Bonsai-Democracy '. . .
The result of 'facilitation' by the khakhis is the invasion of PM house and the House of the Parliament -- you may be much closer to the truth than we realize.
Cyril -- you are the Sherlock Holmes of Pakistan's subterranean politics. Stay safe.
Fantastic writing and analysis. Thank you.
We got you.
I like the word " boys" for them. May Allah be with you, Ameen.
@M. Emad you are so correct. In some ways similar discussion between freshman and our English professor in 1958. We were supporting military ,Professor I think his name was rafique said You are not given a chance to vote and decide . I was 16 and I thought professor who just finished PhD in Oxford was too English . I hope he is alive and well I never thanked him for that discussion.
Your binocular is so clean that you can see the real picture so clear, great.
I think we have run out of excuses that blame the army for every ill that comes our way. A dumb and arrogant man who runs the government as his personal and family business at the helm is not good for any one.
This is the sad truth. You're a brave soul for writing this.
good satire. All read n heard, I feel no army can rule well. They're able to maintain/ restore law n order but no governance. Hope Pak army will not fail the country once again by its direct or proxy rule.
cannot help appreciating your courage to be upright and write the truth. May this country be blessed with more journalists like you.....
Please stay safe.
You must have something against the boys I do but I am not Suu re why would you give NS credit for anything and paint it as if all this is the boys doing? As if NS along with his gang a legit leader who deserves anothe? r chance at what he already committed more than once. Why would you if you had any journalistic integrity or intellectual honesty not hold NS responsible for the blunders he continues to commit which keep increasing in magnitude an d getting more serious in consequences.. Peace
''As do all the civilians. Because to call them out is to invoke a wrath that can bring all your skeletons tumbling out.''............oh my INNOCENT civilian politicians. I dont know why writer is trying to portray that the present mess is because of NS - Mil rivalry, where many of us in Pakistan genuinely believe that the present government has failed to perform and its continuation is fatal for country. May be, to bring out an INSIDE conspiracy is more profitable and fashionable.
The battle is between Nawaz and the boys wish the gullible protesters knew whoever wins nothing changes for them .
what is more dismal is that nawaz and the likes give this victory to the boys! again and again and again ... no capability to learn
Good satire!! but the real problem is that the politicians are to blame.
Cyril's analysis is right on the money. Boys enjoy significant authority in every country but remain subservient to the civil authorities. Why are our boys out of control and above the law? PPP and PML-N have both tried to correct this equation but have failed. Would Cyril please write an article on solution options
The sentences 'The boys think failure is victory' and 'The boys stay strong; everyone else stays weak' is the raison d'etre of the two marches.
In order for democracy to flourish, issues have to be addressed through proper channels, I know we are not there yet, but we have to start somewhere. Giving ultimatums and leaving no room for compromise is not the way to go. TUQ is not even elected and he wants to head of the PM. IK think with your brains, all the verbal that is coming from you does not make any sense. The NA is the only entity that can pass a no confidence motion against the PM. When innocent people were being killed in his province, he never raised a voice against the TTP.
What has happened to journalism? You go to 'the other' English newspaper's website and they are obsessed with the protesters pelting their office with stones, while Islamabad sees scenes never seen before. And here, the same old rhetoric is being spit out. Can you show some evidence to your suggestion or is it exactly that - a suggestion? The army could very well be involved, but this is being conducted between civilian actors. So stop the boogieman debate. Not everything is white or black. Everyone has to take their own responsibility, and the failure of the civilian government is its own.
Cyril Almeida: Interesting peace, but a lot in round about and not-so-very-clear comments. And most certainly your comment at the end about Imran Khan being "failure", I believe is not correct. Imran Khan, like any other politician, has made some silly statements; but then which politician doesn't? You have got to accept one thing..and that is Imran Khan, without doubt, is an honest and caring person, unlike the Shareefs, the Buttos, the Zardaris and the like. I am sure, being a journalist, you should remember the western journalists comments about Imran Khan being the only honest politician.
@AW elect honest, sincere, roundly experienced and thinking men and women as parliament/assembly members. Make local governments self-financing and independent . Elect senators directly.
Great sad piece. What has happened in Pakistan yesterday is too sad for words.
It made me cry and ponder. The piece, how painfully written, and not much we can do. I hear you , dear author!!
Cyril - what an analysis. To the point. I am sure if this trend continues - only the 'boys' will remain and there will be no country to defend. I am an Indian, whose army is always in the barracks, one finds it hard to understand, why is the army in Pakistan so pampered and placed on a pedestal. they have never won a real war, they lost East Pakistan,and have messed up the country due to their constant interference in politics. For us from the outside it looks like a joke when we see photographs where the army chief sits at the same level as the PM - is this Pakistan's USP - ruled by an army that has never been successful where they are supposed to be - on the battlefield.
Boys should not be governing.period. But governance is vital. NS never knew the meaning of the word. For him it means foreign travels, luxurious living, patronage and sacking everyone who dares disagree. In one year heads of NADRA,State Bank and Pemra were shown the door. He still hasn't made up his mind on who replaces them ditto for over two dozen public sector enterprises.
You can blame the boys for 1977 and 2014, but what about Musharaf era? In your effort to make boys look bad, you conveniently moved from 1971-77 to 2008-14 missing the 1999. If only the 'toddlers' i.e. politicians were smart enough when they had chance for moving from one democratic election to another, we would not have seen Zia or for that matter 'boys' being back again. Bhutto carried out massive riggings and we have seen again in 2013 the same phenomenon, that was not the making of the boys, it was the ego of 'toddlers'. If toddlers were born with some brain, there would not have been a failure and victory would have been theirs. But you bring toddlers like Nawaz Sharif you end up with what we see today. Let's be fair to the boys and blame Nawaz Sharif for at least two failures he offered the boys in the plate! No one misses the free lunch in this world.
The role of bureaucracy in this equation, they are the one who had been running this country behind either the boys or politicians. They survive and become more power full every time.
@NASAH (USA) ISPR statement did not give a time line of who called whom and when but surprisingly media interpreted words used as NS lie. Govt has the consitutional right to call upon all state institution in such situation but everyone complained why Army was involved. No one asked why so call democrats IK and TuQ went see COAS?
Cyril you seem to simplify everything down to ' the boys ' versus the political set up in order to retain power...........could it not be that ' the people ' have said enough is enough, no more exploitation in the name of democracy and possibly ' the boys ' agree.
@Qalim Exactly.
PTI president Hashmi was so disgusted with the cheap behavior of Imran Khan running to COAS place he left the protest and went home to Multan.
So right. These two hired guns one bearded and other shaved are repeating the scenario of July 1977. Saturday evening when Ishaq Dar on phone explained to the TV anchor in presence of Shah Mahmood Qureshi that agreement had been reached and PM would resign if the commission appointed finds that elections were rigged-right thereafter as if on a bugle call, the two started their march! What timely cue! As they say in a joke: 'It is deja vu all over again.' In my humble opinion this country has an embeded enemy of the state so strong that the country can not survive! May gods prove me wrong!
This is one of the finest piece I have ever read....extraordinary stuff Cyril...as someone has commented this is painfully true...
whats with the word "boys"..
I will pray for your safety & peace Cyril. Boys will surely have you marked out & boy they do not like true voices.
The article is full of flippant blames & paranoia of 'boys', if the writer thinks civilians have acted competently or sincerely when in power that will be very naive or is it too abstract to decipher. The obvious is that our leaders are grabbers & public listless poor losers
Our politicians don't love democracy - they love only power. If Nawaz loves democracy, why did he rig the elections in the first place. And secondly he still has the chance to redeem himself and democracy by announcing mid-term elections.
Nawaz should go for elections immediately if he loves democracy - but he will not. He has a chance to become a hero by holding fair elections. But he is not a hero.
the point, why boys snatch the candy from the toddlers is that the toddlers cant handle the candy..they are inept and incapable..leaving a vacuum of misgovernance and brutish rule to be filled by boys...had they been too good..things would have never reached this point. if they are true to their mission they will stay honoroubly...proving theyre not..
Cyril.... excellent piece. But 1 important point missing. Boys are boys, because we have politicians like NS. I don't think its the boys who have disrupted the democratic system. It is the failure of democratic system that boys have an easy access whenever they want to. We can all talk about democracy, civil setup, governance and all such jargons.... but the hard reality is that more than 50% of the population wants 3 meals a day, weather its through jamhooriat or otherwise! and jamhooriat has miserably failed to deliver on that! Unfortunate but true!
A well constructed thesis but with a fatal flaw. 1971 was a result of Bhutto's rejection of the outright victory of the Awami League in perhaps the only fair elections in Pakistan under the auspices of a military regime. Glossing over this obvious fact undermine's your argument fatally. The kleptocrats of Pakistan have always been worse than the boys, but I do agree that the stranglehold they have Pakistan must be broken. One decent stint of a democratic government will begin the process, what is certain is that the Zardari-Sharif cabal are not the ones to deliver that.
Army has no role in politics. We must protect democracy. We must bring changes in election laws. This is very sad that Imran Khan and Tahir qadri are acting like spoil teenagers.
Boys .... who are they, from where they come, what is their Clan, their Sect, Their Cast...........
among them are sons, brothers, husbands, fathers, ..... but whose?
they are from every where but heaven,
but what so ever they are surly they have mystical powers,
@Indian In fact it doesn't matter what the boys want or what any worldly power may seek. If one is honest to self and follows one's conscious, one is victorious, in this world and/or the next.
Remember those famous words of Anarkali: jub payar kiya to derna kaya... (our historically fictitious heroine stands up to the sole proprietor of Northern India, and what's the worst the man could do!?!?!?)
Bunday ko apna iman darust aur zaban saaf rakhni chahiay. Then, to CA's point, one doesn't have skeletons to be afraid of :)
May my Allah and your God keep you safe. With Boys on other side and in Pakistan I have doubts devinity could save anyone.
I agree with every single word and every single thought. So well nanlyzed and so succinctly summed up the root cause of Pakistan's chronic ailment. I hope and pray to God to save Pakistan and its people.
Granted you write very well cyril....the real question is if these 'civlians' are allowed to grow for another 20 years do you really think the system would have cleansed itself and by some miracle everyone will be sincere....just because they are allowed to complete their term.....when you see the house is falling your try to save it rather than saying 'oh it must go through this process...it will be stronger for it' !!
cyril i dnt agree with you..it looks u have not written this..u were told to write...leave this hypocrisy...do u think Nawaz is nt responsible for this event...?? when IK was asking for only 4 ...why Govt didn't listen to him? and u have put every thing on army..its so easy to comment and to write about army while sitting in your room..but its very difficult to remain awake on siachen...feel some shame.....
In a page, this article sums up the history of Pakistan and current situation. Well done!!
beautiful piece, brutally honest and true to the core.
@F Khan : So shouldn't the KPK government of your Mr. "smash-it-all" Khan be the first one to be dismissed? It promised people the moon and delivered nothing. Isn't that the most brazen form of lying?
A big WoW...! perfect and honest. Boys shall have respect for civilian epochs.
When the rupture does come though
What a load of rubbish this article is, easy it is to blame the 'boys' for all the failings of family-based , single-personality-based , 'democratic parties'. Why don't you write about what is fundamentally wrong with our political system , which is that those representing 'democracy' in our country are not democratic themselves.
@Qalim For God's sake stop this blatantly wrong interpretation of the event. Khurshid Shah asked in the parliament who asked army for mediation. The PM replied that Nisar got the call that IK and TuQ want army to be arbitrator. Within hours the ISPR said it was PM who asked for the facilitation. If Khurshid Shah is satisfied with this, then he should come out in public. The fact is that PM lied in the parliament that the request for meeting was from IK and TuQ. There is one thing to support someone, it is another to cover up their lies.
All Nawaz has to do is to get the election results audited if he has nothing to hide, Given that he is willing to risk everything but do the Audit proves he is there illegally. The Military hating intellectual elite of ours does not understand that it s the civilians and their utter disregard for the people and the law brings us back to military rule which has been celebrated every time by the people,.
@Shehryar I find your comments rubbish. A stable system is what this country needs, even if its flawed now will improve over time, if not by Nawaz Sharif then it will be someone else. The respectable system in this world is democracy. When Indira Gandhi imposed emergency in 1975 in India, she was booted out of office in 1977. Silvio Berlusconi of Italy is corrupt of corrupts, yet Italians still embrace democracy. What Imran Khan has done is to destabilize the system. Had he performed well in KP and fought to improve the electoral system in Pakistan with parliament, he would have been the next PM in 2018. Sadly, he has harmed Pakistan and his own chances in 2018.
correct but look also on our politicians
Interesting article regarding the army forces of Pakistan always derailing the democratic movements now and in the past. Perhaps, it is s part of your inherited culture to have military dictators ruled you; all the pre partition rulers of the subcontinent were the Kings and Queens, and Rajas and Maharajas and the Ranis with absolute powers. Thus it is nothing new to seek comfort in the arms of the arm forces
In 1999 ,MNS had a chance to face the boys head on, he could have made a history for himself and for the nation but he blinked, packed up and accepted 'voluntary ' exile in Saudi Arabia. When his tormentor,Musharraf was on shaky ground, MNS with the blessings of his Saudi friends reappeared on the landscape. This time he bit more than he can chew. Musharraf is an albatross around his neck. Boys will never allow one of their own in harm's way
Great article. Salute to a brave reporter . May your tribe increase and prosper all over the world . Let truth prevail
@F Khan - One year is not time enough to measure performance, thats why election are NOT held annually.
Very True, very hard to disagree.