Straining at the leash

PRESIDENT Bush seems determined to have his way on Iraq — UN or no UN. Under pressure from friends and allies to seek a fresh mandate from the world body before taking military action against the Saddam regime, Bush did so for form’s sake in his speech at the General Assembly last Friday. But he made it clear he wanted the UN to act in “days and weeks.” The speech sounded like an ultimatum to the world body when he said action would become “unavoidable” unless the UN acted with speed. American diplomats are now busy working on a tough, cast-iron UN resolution that will demand Iraq’s immediate compliance. All other permanent members of the Security Council except Britain do not share America’s frenzied desire to punish Iraq. But the three differ on how to go about it.

France and China both believe any US action against Iraq must have a UN mandate, while Russia remains strongly opposed to any military action. As a Russian foreign ministry spokesman said on Friday, Moscow did not believe that the possibilities of a diplomatic and political solution had been exhausted. Yet it appears unlikely that any of the three will veto any America-backed resolution authorizing Washington to attack Iraq. Washington now seems determined to act unilaterally, if necessary, but in probability it will succeed in having the kind of “go-ahead” resolution it wants.

Unfortunately, the Saddam regime has not helped the matters by rejecting the American demand for an unconditional return of the UN weapons inspectors. Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz’s statement that letting the inspectors in without any conditions would amount to repeating “an experience that failed” made it possible for the White House to insinuate that Baghdad had “something to hide.” Given the bellicose mood in Washington, it is obvious that either the UN Council will have to come up with the kind of resolution the US wants or stand aside and helplessly watch death and destruction being rained down from the skies on a defiant Iraq in endless torrents of American fury.

Faced with such grim prospects the Saddam regime should know that it stands little chance of surviving another American blitz, nor can it have its way diplomatically in this unipolar world. Fortunately, there are still saner voices in the world, some of them coming even from the US itself. The Democratic Party, for instance, wants President Bush to provide more evidence on Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, while broad sections of liberal opinion in Europe and America seem appalled by the Bush administration’s fixation with “the axis of evil.” UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, too, has voiced his opposition to an American strike against Iraq. Baghdad would do well to agree to the return of the inspectors in return for a UN promise to end the sanctions. This would be in line with what the Arab foreign ministers suggested in their last meeting in Cairo, for such a deal alone appears to be the only way of avoiding a full-scale invasion. Even otherwise sanctions have long outlived their utility; all that they have done is to kill more than half a million people, mostly women and children. This makes the case for the lifting of the sanctions in exchange for the inspectors’ return strong and reasonable.

Rise in exports

THE trade figures for the first two months (July and August) of the current fiscal year, released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS), show welcome signs of a gradual recovery of the economy. The incipient trend of exports moving upwards that had emerged in the last quarter of the previous fiscal year has not only continued but seems to be strengthening although it is too early to say that it would stabilize. Indications are that value-addition in exportable goods is also gaining momentum. Imports of raw material, intermediate goods and machinery have all risen indicating that industrial activity is picking up. This is confirmed also by the figures released by the Investment Promotion Bureau about foreign direct investment during July which is substantially higher than that in the same month last year.

According to the FBS figures, export earnings during the two months under reference increased by 21 per cent from $1.4 billion during the same period last year to $1.7 billion this year. This makes the target of $10.4 billion for the current year achievable with a little more effort as the monthly average achieved so far ($850 million) is close to the monthly average of the annual target ($866 million). What is more satisfying is the fact that the increase in exports resulted largely from value-added goods. Textiles earned 20.6 per cent more than last year and yarn for the first time has been relegated to the fifth position in the textile group, fabrics occupying the first place. The group improved its contribution to total earnings from 71 per cent to 73 per cent. Other items which registered marked increases are chemicals (97.8 per cent), footwear (71.6 per cent) and engineering goods (51.71 per cent). Among significant losers are leather manufacturers, surgical goods and cutlery.

The factors that have helped exports include increased market access provided by the European Union by lifting quota restrictions on textiles and allowing duty-free entry for other goods. Relaxation in quota restrictions was also promised by the United States but this has not materialized yet for lack of final legal clearance. When that is done, it would make the realization of the export target for the current year certain. The other factor which has contributed to the rise in exports is the stability of the exchange rate as a result of accumulation of reserves. This has made it possible for Pakistani exporters and their overseas buyers to make deals with confidence — without the uncertainty of a rapidly fluctuating exchange rate affecting the prices of goods.

High-risk promotions

PARTICIPANTS in a medical seminar held in Karachi the other day warned of the high risk of death associated with smoking. They expressed concern over the government policy of giving the tobacco companies a free hand in the promotion of tobacco products as they contribute some Rs 20 billion to the exchequer in taxes. The participating doctors said smoking was directly linked to the growing incidence of lung cancer, heart attack, chronic bronchitis, stroke and high blood pressure besides 20 other deadly conditions and diseases. According to a recent study, 40 per cent of Pakistani adult males are smokers compared to eight per cent females, whereas an overall 50 per cent of the adult population consumes tobacco products other than cigarettes.

Unfortunately, there is a ring of truth in what the doctors said at the seminar about government policy with regard to tobacco companies. Tobacco advertising in recent years has increasingly become youth-targeted, where young smokers are shown in heroic situations scaling great heights and overcoming challenges of all sorts. This glamourization of smokers is aimed at attracting the youth to tobacco products. Also, the tobacco companies are routinely allowed to run thinly veiled promotional campaigns that offer huge sums in cash prizes. Given the medically established high health risks associated with smoking, these are things that would be unthinkable in any advanced country in this day and age. It is time the government reviewed its policy towards unchecked promotion of tobacco products and restrained the tobacco companies from making profits literally at the expense of people’s health and lives.