ISLAMABAD, Dec 7: Erratic climate change events have hit the rice production in Pakistan this year, and to take account of damages, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in its end-of-the-season report has downgraded its production forecast for the country by 600,000 tonnes to 8.7 million tonnes (5.8m tonnes, milled basis).

However, the revised figure nevertheless suggests a five per cent increase from the poor 2012 outcome, supported by larger area coverage, according to the latest issue ‘Rice Market Monitor’ just published by the FAO.

The FAO report says that after three consecutive years of flood-related losses, Pakistan was again battered by torrential rains and ensuing floods in August. The two main rice-producing regions of Punjab and Sindh were affected by the inundations, particularly the basmati-growing areas of Punjab.

The deterioration of prospects for paddy production primarily concerned Pakistan, although farmers in the country are reported to be favouring rice over cotton and, contrary to the previous year, adequate availabilities for irrigation permitted planting activities to unfold in a timely manner.

The monitor observed that after reaching a high of 3.5m tonnes in 2010, rice exports by Pakistan have come under increasing pressure from right availabilities and severe electricity shortages.

This has been particularly the case in the basmati market, where the country has been consistently out-competed by India.

While affordable prices in the non-basmati segment are expected to keep 2013 shipments from Pakistan at 3m tonnes, or 7pc above 2012 levels, the outlook for 2014 has been dampened by prospects of intense competition for markets.

Next year, exports from Pakistan would be further constrained if current expectations of flood-related losses in the basmati producing areas are confirmed. As a result, the FAO anticipates Pakistan to ship 2.9m tonnes in 2014, which would be 3pc below the current 2013 forecast.

While developing countries are expected to account for all of the stock increase, with larger reserves, these may shrink in Pakistan, India and the United States, estimates the report.

The FAO says that adverse weather in parts of Asia has badly affected rice production. According to the rice market monitor, global paddy production in 2013, while still expected to outpace 2012 production, has been revised downward by some 5m tonnes to 741.4m tonnes (494.2m tonnes, milled basis).

The predicted result is that global production will have increased by just 1.1pc year-on-year, instead of the projected 1.5pc increase anticipated at the start of paddy season.