April 26, 2008	Saturday	Rabi-us-Sani 19, 1429

KATHMANDU: Former rebel Maoists have secured a surprise win in landmark elections to shape Nepal’s political future, but the ex-insurgents will struggle to keep pledges for massive reform, analysts said.

The ultra-leftists will be the largest party by far in the constituent assembly, whose first task is to abolish the world’s last Hindu monarchy and then rewrite the constitution.

But having won 217 seats in the 601-seat assembly, they will need to temper their reform agenda, said Yubaraj Ghimire, a leading magazine editor and analyst.

“The Maoists want radical socio-economic transformation, but the fact they have just won a simple majority means they will have to compromise on a lot of things,” Ghimire said.

The end of the monarchy a Maoist objective since they launched the “People’s War” in 1996 has looked certain since the interim government agreed last year that the kingdom would be abolished in the assembly’s first meeting.

But the Maoists’ plans for sweeping changes, including “revolutionary” land reform combined with the use of capitalism as a tool to bring about their vision of a republican Nepal, will be more difficult.

Sandwiched between regional giants India and China, aid-dependent Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world. The civil war that ended with a 2006 peace deal wrecked an already fragile economy and left 13,000 people dead.

Bijaya Ghimire, the chief economic journalist with the Kantipur media group, described Maoist plans for Nepal’s economy as “way too ambitious”. “They are talking about increasing per capita income from $350 per year to $3,000 per year in 10 years, but this is impossible,” said the senior analyst at Nepal’s biggest private media company.

“We lack infrastructure and financial resources, and investors are not going to flood in after the Maoists come to power,” he said.

Political analyst and author Bhaskar Gautam agreed the Maoists would have a tough time pushing through reforms, but said they have to be seen to be making the effort by their supporters.

“There are constraints on infrastructure and resources here, so they will be forced to depend on small economic reforms,” Gautam said.

“This could push them into a situation where retaining their cadres’ support will be more challenging.” Last week, Maoist leader Prachanda boasted to the Kathmandu business community about what he would achieve in power.

“We have been given a chance to lead the government and we now think that this responsibility is to bring economic miracles in the country,” he said.

“People might not believe that we can bring economic miracles, but we will prove it,” said the former school teacher.

The prickly issue of what to do with the one-time rebel fighters also looms.

The Maoists insist their 31,000 fighters, currently in UN-monitored camps around the country, should be brought into Nepal’s army.

But Nepal’s army chief has repeatedly said there is no way indoctrinated, guerrilla-trained fighters can join the ranks of the 90,000 strong force that has traditionally been loyal to the monarchy.

“The settlement of the People’s Liberation Army and army reform is closely related, and is sure to weigh heavily on the political process” following the polls, Gautam said.

The Maoists remain on a US list of terrorist organisations, and there will continue to be widespread fear of the ultra-leftists until their army is reintegrated into society, said editor Yubaraj Ghimire.

“As long as (Maoist leader) Prachanda has a private army under his control, people will continue to be scared of the Maoists.”—AFP