ISLAMABAD, Oct 3: The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has convened a meeting of its technical committee on Friday to finalise water availability estimates for the 2007-08 Rabi crop season.
An Irsa official told Dawn on Tuesday that Irsa’s chief engineer Aurangzeb Khattak will preside over the meeting, to be attended by directors of provincial irrigation departments and senior officials of Wapda, Irsa and the meteorological department.
When asked about water shortage for the season, the official said the provincial irrigation departments, Wapda and Irsa would submit their respective probability estimates on the basis of the historic pattern and then the consolidated water availability position would be presented before the advisory committee of the Irsa sometime next month.
He said water shortage estimates could only be finalised when the advisory committee approves probability estimates.
Informed sources, however, confirmed that water shortage could be expected to the extent of 15 per cent during the Rabi season due to the decline in river flows and storage capacity of dams.
As a result of the expected shortage, the dispute over water shortage is likely to re-emerge between Punjab and Sindh because of the divergent interpretation of relevant clauses of the 1991 water accord. About 10 per cent shortage is expected due to silting of dams and the resultant decline in storage capacity and another five per cent due to statistical shortages.
The officials said the water availability in the ongoing Kharif period has remained short of Irsa’s anticipations because of the decline in river flows in the last few days despite reduced discharges to the provinces. Some major crops like wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, barley and mustard are of the Rabi season that begins on October 1 and ends on April 30.
Last year on September 25, the storage in dams stood at about 11.4 million acre feet (MAF) for carrying forward and the country experienced 14 per cent shortage in Rabi. This year the storage in both reservoirs has turned out to be about 10 MAF.
On the basis of the historical pattern, the forecast for last year Rabi inflows were put at 23.20 MAF and, hence, Irsa’s estimated total water availability for Rabi at 34.60 MAF. The situation is expected to remain more or less the same this year if estimation is made on the basis of historical basis, although better rainfall has been forecast for this year.
Usually, water shortages are distributed among the provinces on historical- use basis ((1977-82) as defined in Section 14(b) of the accord that benefits Punjab and reduces Sindh’s share by about five per cent. Sindh, however, contends that water distribution should be done under equal sharing of shortages.
