The local currency market witnessed mixed sentiments this week. The rupee traded
in narrow ranges versus the dollar. However, the rupee continued its sharp
advances versus the European single currency, which crossed Rs85 barrier this
week.
The euro is now heading for another new peak in coming weeks. Against the US
currency, the rupee opened the week on a positive note. A stable trend was seen
in the inter bank market, where the rupee gained one paisa against dollar on
September 24. At close the dollar traded at Rs60.60 and Rs60.61 against last
week close of Rs60.61 and Rs60.62 on improved dollar supplies.
The rupee managed to hold its overnight levels against dollar on September 25.
The dollar traded at Rs60.60 and Rs60.61, as easy supply of dollar enabled the
rupee to maintain its levels versus the US currency on the second day of the
week in review. Bearish sentiment was seen in the inter bank market on September
26, as the rupee failed to show rise in its value despite the higher trend in
the remittances and shed against dollar five paisa for buying and six paisa for
selling to trade at Rs60.65 and Rs60.67 during the day.
Importers demand for dollars exerted downward pressure on the rupee, which shed
10 paisa against the dollar and traded at Rs60.75 and Rs60.77 on September 27.
Importers’ rush for dollars discouraged the rupee to continue its upward
journey.
On September 28, the rupee managed to recover its lost ground as it reversed its
overnight weakness against dollar gaining six paisa in a single rally to trade
at
Rs60.69 and Rs60.71. In the past one week, the rupee in the inter bank market
lost eight paisa against the dollar.
In the open market, the rupee picked up two paisa against the dollar, changing
hands at Rs60.63 and Rs60.65 on September 24, against previous weekend’s Rs60.65
and Rs60.70. On the second trading day, the rupee did not show any change
against the dollar on buying counter but shed three paisa on selling counter as
it traded at Rs60.63 and Rs60.68 on September 25. On September 26, the rupee
maintained its overnight level against the dollar which traded unchanged at Rs
60.63 and Rs 60.68 on the third consecutive day.
After remaining unchanged for almost three days, the rupee lost ground versus
the dollar on September 27, when it shed four paisa for buying and two paisa for
selling and traded at Rs60.67 and Rs60.70. The rupee extended its overnight
weakness against the dollar on the fifth trading day, changing hands at Rs60.70
and Rs60.75 on September 28. This week, the rupee in the open market shed five
paisa versus the American currency, amid slow trading. Due to heavy inflows of
overseas remittances, demand for American currency was low in the local currency
market.
Versus the European single common currency, the rupee continued its fall against
euro. It shed six paisa on buying counter and five paisa on selling counter,
changing hands at Rs85.10 and at Rs85.20 on the opening day of the week after
closing last week at Rs85.04 and Rs85.15. On September 25, the rupee, however,
managed to recover against euro as it picked up 14 paisa and traded at Rs84.96
and Rs85.06. On September 26, the rupee once again reversed its trend versus the
euro and dropped by 49 paisa against euro touching record lows during the week
at Rs85.45 and Rs85.55.
The rupee, however, managed to recover from its overnight weakness on September
27, when it gained five paisa against euro to trade at Rs85.40 and Rs85.50.
Finally on September 28, the rupee again lost its overnight firmness and shed 20
paisa against euro, changing hands at Rs85.60 and Rs85.70. During the week in
review, the rupee crossed record lows of Rs85, after shedding 56 paisa against
the European single common currency.
On the international front, the dollar hit a record low against the euro for the
third straight session on the opening day of the week in review amid fears that
a deepening housing slump could rein in economic growth and trigger more cuts in
US interest rates. Trade was light as attention shifted to existing-home sales
and consumer confidence data. Investors were worried that weak economic reports
will push the Federal Reserve to follow last week’s half-per centage-point rate
cut with more policy easing, further eroding the dollar’s yield advantage over
other currencies, particularly the euro.
The euro was at $1.4088 after earlier hitting a record high $1.4130 on September
24, according to Reuters data. The dollar traded at to 114.75, down 0.6 per
cent, below its level last weekend as investors remained wary of piling back
into carry trades. Sterling recovered from a one-year trough against a basket of
currencies, as investors started the week feeling a bit more optimistic about
the health of the UK economy and financial sector. It was up 0.15 per cent at
$2.0224.
On September 25, the dollar fell to a record low against the euro as US consumer
confidence plunged to a near two-year trough, raising expectations of another
Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month. The day marked the fourth
consecutive session in which the dollar tested all-time lows against the euro,
which has gained on signs of weaker US growth and the view that lower interest
rates will keep eroding the dollar’s yield advantage.
The euro last traded at $1.4142, up 0.4 per cent and just below an all-time high
of $1.4153 hit earlier, according to Reuters data. Earlier, the euro was unfazed
by a report showing German Ifo business confidence survey surprised on the
weaker side. The dollar also fell against the yen, trading at 114.69 yen, down
0.1 per cent on the day. The greenback rose against sterling, though, after a
report in a British newspaper sparked worries about the UK financial sector
arising from the credit crisis. Sterling traded at $2.0188.
On September 26, the US dollar recovered from record lows against the euro and
pulled back from near a 15-year trough versus a basket of major currencies on as
buyers took advantage of cheap exchange rates. The euro last traded at $1.4124,
down 0.2 per cent on the day, after racing to a lifetime high of $1.4162 in
European trade. The dollar rebounded when it dropped to near 1992’s all-time low
against a basket of six major currencies.
The dollar’s recovery was also aided by firmer US stocks and rising US Treasury
debt yields. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.7 per cent to 115.55, boosted in
late trade as stocks rallied on news that Bear Stearns is in talks to sell a
minority stake. The euro has appreciated nearly four \per cent against the
dollar so far in September, while emerging market currencies have also posted
hefty gains. The baht has risen more than 5 per cent against the dollar so far
this year after gaining 14 per cent in 2006. Sterling was slightly down against
the dollar at $2.0164.
On September 27, the dollar hit a record low against the euro and slumped to an
all-time low against a basket of currencies as tame inflation data bolstered the
case for more interest rate cuts to shore up the US economy. A muted rise in a
monthly measure of US core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy items,
helped lift the euro above $1.42, its seventh record high in as many trading
sessions. It later sailed through options-related barriers around $1.4250 to a
record peak of $1.4278, up 0.8 per cent on the day.
The euro has gained 4.3 per cent versus the dollar so far this month and 4.9 per
cent during the third quarter, the largest increase since the second quarter of
2006. The dollar fell 0.7 per cent to 114.75 yen and dropped nearly 1 per cent
against the Canadian dollar to C$0.9920, leaving parity further behind. Sterling
also rose 0.9 per cent to $2.0460. Sterling strengthened drawing support from
the dollar’s broad weakness and data showing stronger than expected UK house
prices. That helped the pound overall, rebounding as well from a 14-month low
against a basket of currencies hit on September 26.
At the close of the week on September 28, the dollar stayed under pressure near
record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies as investors awaited
reports on US consumers due later in the day for further clues about the
strength of the economy. The greenback had fallen to record lows the previous
session, hit by fresh evidence that a weak housing market could crimp US growth
and force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again.



























