ISLAMABAD, June 9: The government has projected the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth target for the next fiscal year 2007-08 at 7.2pc against the current 7pc while inflation rate at 6.5pc as against the average of 7.9pc recorded in the outgoing year.
The trade deficit is expected to increase to $10.631bn from this year’s $9.9bn despite an expected 10 per cent growth in export which is projected to increase to $18.921bn against $17.205bn estimated in the outgoing financial year.
The government has planned to achieve the export growth through increase in agricultural production and manufacturing output and improvement in the productivity of industrial workforce.
Imports are expected to increase by 9pc, states the government’s Annual Plan 2007-08 released here on Saturday.
The current account deficit is estimated to close at $8.11bn in the new fiscal year against a deficit of $7.12bn in the outgoing year.
The country’s foreign currency reserves are projected to swell up to $17.70bn from the current $14.535bn.
The overall investment is projected to be 23.8pc of GDP, with private investment taking the lead and public sector investment would mainly be made in developing the physical as well scientific and technological infrastructure. The government will try to achieve high value added in agriculture including livestock and fisheries and manufacturing especially engineering goods and services.
The agriculture growth target has been set at 4.8pc, 0.2pc less than the 5pc growth in the outgoing year. The government will try to achieve this target by improving timely water availability and water management besides quality seeds.
The value added of major crops is projected to increase by 4.5 per cent to Rs415.1bn compared to Rs397.2bn during 2006-07.
Cotton production is expected to increase by 8.8pc to 14.14m bales, while the production of sugarcane is targeted at 55.9m tons against 54.7m tons of the outgoing year. Rice and maize production are projected to increase to 5.7m tonnes and 3.2m tons respectively. Wheat target has been projected at all-time high 24m tons, two per cent more than the production in the outgoing year.
The 2006-07 economic growth was also led by wheat and it seems that this sole major crop is the main pillar of the government’s economic plan for the new fiscal year despite the fact that crop is highly dependent on weather – a thing beyond human control.
The value added of minor crops is expected to increase by 2.3pc to Rs130.8bn against Rs127.9bn of the outgoing fiscal. Livestock is projected to grow by 5.7pc against 4.3pc increase realised during the outgoing year. The fisheries sector is targeted to grow by 4.2pc, while forestry 3.5pc.
The manufacturing sector is targeted to grow by 10.9pc this year. In the outgoing year the government had targeted industrial growth at 11pc but was unable to achieve it, ending the year with just 6.8pc.
The government plans to achieve the manufacturing target by getting 12.5pc increase in large-scale manufacturing, 7.5pc in small-scale and 5pc in slaughtering.
The services sector, which is projected to grow by 7.1pc, would continue to be the main contributor towards the robust economic growth in this fiscal as well.
In order to achieve the GDP growth target, total investment is projected to increase by 18.9pc to Rs2.381bn from the present R2.003bn. Fixed investment is planned to reach Rs2.221billion reflecting an increase of 19.2pc over the investment level of the outgoing fiscal.
