LAHORE, Dec 17: Punjab is yet to achieve its wheat sowing target for the current season, with farmers and officials making conflicting claims about the exact size of the shortfall.

According to Agriculture Secretary Fayyaz Bashir, Punjab has completed around 95 per cent of its target — 15.59 million acres. The five per cent shortfall is mainly in rice and, to some extent, in cotton belt.

He said the country had two rain spells in the last few weeks, making the soil in rice belt too wet to allow harvesting of rice. Similarly, the cotton price was too high for farmers to miss even the last pick. Both these factors had delayed sowing in both the areas, affecting the overall figure by five per cent.

But farmers think that the deficit is anywhere from 10 to 15 per cent, instead of five as claimed by the secretary. They claim that in addition to two factors mentioned by the secretary, the price of fertiliser has also been a deterrent to timely sowing of wheat.

It is true for the rice belt; soil there is too wet to allow harvesting. But the cotton belt is delaying sowing because the cotton price is high enough to allow early harvesting. Farmers know that even two maund of cotton can fetch them over Rs2,600, which will be more than the profit of one acre of wheat. The terms of trade are dictating delay in cotton picking and wheat sowing, they say.

“The government has failed to control the price of fertiliser, which has become a big deterrent for farmers,” says an office-bearer of the Farmers Associates of Pakistan.

He says in spite of announcing a substantial subsidy of Rs12.5 billion, the government has failed to bring the prices down. Both the urea and DAP are still being sold at 10 per cent more than the official price. This price is sufficient to rig the terms of trade of wheat. That is why most of the farmers are taking chances with other crops. They realise that one acre of wheat, after all toil and sweat, will not bring them the profit that the three-maund cotton can bring them at this stage. Delay in wheat sowing is a policy failure of the government, he insists.

Fifteen per cent of the total 15.59 million acres target means that over two million acres are still to be sown. This is a big figure and will take another two weeks to complete, he says.

This delay will compromise final yield of the crop, says Farooq Bajwa of the FAP. Optimum deadline for sowing wheat is Nov 20, but, according to experts, it should not be sown after Dec 15, as it will not even help recover expenditures incurred on the crop. Even Nov 20 deadline can only be missed at the cost of 10 to 15 per cent of the crop. But, the next deadline can only be missed at the risk of even recovery of seeds. In these circumstances, one can imagine what will happen to the national target when 15 per cent of the target — over two million acres — of sowing is missed, he concludes.