LONDON, Aug 3: Iraq is more likely to slide into civil war than turn into a democracy, Britain’s outgoing ambassador in Baghdad wrote in a diplomatic cable leaked on Thursday.
Prime Minister Tony Blair said the main thrust of ambassador William Patey’s final cable to London was similar to comments Patey has made in public — that Britain should stay the course.
But excerpts quoted by the BBC suggested a far more pessimistic assessment for prospects in Iraq than Britain has previously disclosed.
“The prospect of a low intensity civil war and a de facto division of Iraq is probably more likely at this stage than a successful and substantial transition to a stable democracy,” Patey wrote in the cable, addressed to Blair.
“Even the lowered expectation of President (George W.) Bush for Iraq — a government that can sustain itself, defend itself and govern itself and is an ally in the war on terror — must remain in doubt.”
Describing the main Shia militia, he wrote: “If we are to avoid a descent into civil war and anarchy then preventing the (Mehdi Army) from developing into a state within a state, as Hezbollah has done in Lebanon, will be a priority.”—Reuters
