June 05, 2006	Monday	Jumadi-ul-Awwal 8, 1427

THE third Punjab Development Forum (PDF), organised by the provincial Planning and Development (P&D) Department last month, was an event different from the previous two such events.

First, the venue of this year’s moot was shifted from a public place to highly secured environs of the Chief Minister’s Secretariat on the Mall.

Second, the people, apart from donor representatives and bureaucracy, invited to the forum from civil society or the non-governmental organizations were fewer in number, and visibly far less critical and incisive than seen in the past.

The venue shift reflected a strong desire of both the provincial bureaucracy and the highest political authority to confine the decision-making process which affects millions of citizens of the province, to just a few, away from public scrutiny.

And the reduced representation of the civil society underscored the influence of the decision-makers to even mildest criticism of their policies, particularly in the presence of officials of the multilateral agencies who have been providing huge funds to the province for implementing a wide ranging reforms agenda.

When the comments of a P&D Department official were sought on the change in the moot’s venue, he was quite forthcoming in his reply: “The moot is meant for the donors, who give us money, and not for public or civil society organizations.”

“It is primarily organised to sell Punjab’s development policies and future economic strategies and programmes to them. This kind of conference or moot has little or no space for undue criticism.”

“If someone is interested in giving his views on the government policies, he should use other platforms, such as provincial assembly, for this purpose.”

Nevertheless, what the forum offered to the regular audience was more or less the same what they had heard in the past. The forum’s proceedings as well as the official rhetoric were remarkably similar to what one had seen or heard at the previous two moots.

At times a feeling of deja vu would overwhelm you. On top of that the reduced interventions by the civil society representatives added to the feeling of boredom and monotony that number of participants experienced during the two days.

Three main themes – development of the private sector, decrease in poverty and success achieved with regard to development initiatives, and programmes executed so far under the government’s reforms agenda – were central to each presentation made by the officials and the ministers at the forum on various economic and social sectors.

In addition to it, the future plans and strategies, in line with the reforms agenda of the government, were also outlined for the consumption of the donors.

The development of the private sector, and its participation in the initiatives of the government was repeatedly presented by the speakers as a panacea to the issue of poverty.

“Encouragement of private sector, the engine of economic growth, would generate new jobs, which, in turn, will alleviate poverty in the province,” was the main refrain of speeches and presentations made at the forum.

It was also repeatedly claimed that the provincial government’s development programmes and initiatives had successfully put Punjab on the road of economic growth, allowing “its GDP to grow at the desired rate of seven per cent or more a year and creating one million new, promised jobs and thus substantially reducing poverty in the province”.

The miracle, the participants were told, has been performed by the government “through its policy interventions made at different levels as well as reforms and initiatives that facilitated and encouraged private investment in the economic and social sectors”.

The official claims on employment generation, and poverty reduction remain far removed from the reality. Indeed, Punjab’s economy has grown more rapidly in the recent years and thousands of new jobs, though mostly temporary, created.

However, independent economists say, the very fact that the overwhelming percentage of the new jobs has been generated by the services sector, which remains the major driver of growth in the province as elsewhere in the country, cannot be ignored.

“It largely means that the jobs created in the services sector are largely for the unskilled, temporary, and low-paid. These kinds of jobs can produce working poor but cannot alleviate poverty. If poverty has to be eliminated or reduced, we need to generate sustainable, well-paid jobs in the real sectors – industry and agriculture, as well as to ensure that the fruits of growth are distributed equitably among the people living in all parts of the province, especially among those living in the least developed areas,” says an economist.

The provincial government’s own documents show that poverty reduction is not as simple a job as officials tend to present it. Nor can it be concealed by fudging the figures.

The district-wise Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) released by the government at the start of the PDF reveals that 66 per cent populations of four districts live below the poverty line (making less than Rs750 a month) as against the provincial average of 39 per cent. The average income per month in these districts ranges between Rs793 and Rs974 against the provincial average of Rs1,385.

Similarly, the poverty ratio in yet another seven districts ranges between 50 per cent and 59 per cent where the average monthly income hovers between Rs878 and Rs1,070.

In another five districts, the incidence of poverty is calculated to be between 40 per cent and 49 per cent with an average monthly income ranging between Rs1,071 and Rs1,385.

The rate of poverty in the remaining 18 districts is recorded between 15 per cent and 38 per cent, less than the provincial average of 39 per cent.

Out of these 18 districts, the poverty ratio in 11 districts is reported to be between 30 per cent and 38 per cent with average income per month ranging between Rs1,155 and Rs1,754.

Six districts have poverty levels below 30 per cent and above 20 per cent with an average monthly income of Rs1,509-2,449. The average monthly income in the only district, Sialkot, with poverty ratio of 15 per cent is Rs1,711 per month.

Apart from revealing the extent of poverty, the survey amply reflects on the government policies that have created a wide social and economic disparity between different regions in the province.

Rajanpur and Bahawalpur are the poorest districts of the province with 66 per cent of their population living below the poverty line. It shows that their poverty level is 27 per cent higher than the provincial average and their average income levels are less than half the provincial average.

The most prosperous districts include Sialkot, Lahore and Jhelum with poverty rates of 15 per cent, 20 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.

A comparison between the poorest and the richest districts goes to show that the poverty level in Sialkot is almost four and half times less than that prevalent in Rajanpur and Bahawalpur. The incidence of poverty in these two poorest districts is more than three times higher than Lahore and Jhelum.

Although the survey was conducted two years back, the final document has been released less than one month ago. Some officials may reject the findings of the survey as old, but their importance even in today’s context, when the provincial development outlay has almost doubled, cannot be overstated.

It goes to establish that the misguided policies of the government have actually further encouraged uneven development in the province and increased regional disparity.

Unless the government reviews its economic and social development policies and diverts resources where they are needed the most, it will continue to encourage regional development gap to widen without ever actually controlling or reducing poverty in the province.