Parliamentary democracy: image & reality

IT SPEAKS of the sorry state of our democracy that those in office attach little importance to the organs of government that represent the people. The National Assembly, the Senate and the provincial assemblies have traditionally not received the importance they deserve. Had it not been so, the constant lament of lack of quorum and the failure of members to behave with decorum in the House would not have been a characteristic feature of Pakistan’s constitutional history. The government’s contempt for the lawmakers was evident on Tuesday when three ministers failed to show up in the Senate when issues relating to their ministries came up for discussion in the question hour in the Upper House. Understandably the members of the opposition took offence at this behaviour.

To be effective and genuine, democracy must be embedded in a system of accountability, transparency and good governance. These principles can be ensured only through a parliament fully aware of its responsibilities. Moreover it must be encouraged to play its lawmaking and watchdog role if the government has to be made answerable to the people. If our assemblies and Senate have not performed well, the blame partly goes to the MNAs, MPAs and the Senators themselves. Many of them have used their position to enhance their social status and political clout, while they continue to get a neat sum through their parliamentary allowances and privileges. But when it came to fulfilling their responsibilities — attending the sessions regularly, doing their homework on issues before the House and keeping in touch with their constituents — many of them cannot claim to have a good and consistent record of performance. Although one MNA has argued against the quorum requirement of 25 per cent which he says is too high and is used by the opposition to stall a session, the ruling party has not performed any better either. The fact is that assemblies are not treated with the seriousness they deserve. It is said that since 2002 the National Assembly has been adjourned on more than 300 occasions on account of a lack of quorum. Given its majority in the House, the PML-Q and its allies could easily have provided the necessary quorum if they had a strong commitment to the democratic process. So shameful has been their record that the parliamentary affairs minister was at one time considering imposing penalties on the absentees and rewarding those whose attendance was good.

All this points to the preponderant presence of the military in politics that has reduced elections and the legislatures almost to a farce. Those who are members of these bodies themselves believe that they owe their political strength to their patrons in the army and not to the people who have elected them. The focus of their attention is not their performance in the House, but their ties with the military leadership, which regards the parliament as a body it had to put together to present a facade of democracy before the world. The less the assemblies bother those in real power the more acceptable they are taken to be. This is not something new. This strategy has been adopted by every military ruler since General Ayub Khan staged the country’s first coup and a few years later set up a puppet legislature to project the image of his controlled democracy. The pity is that the legislators since then have not tried to change this unhealthy tradition and restore the dignity and independence of the parliament.

Gen Beg’s wisdom

FORMER army chief Gen Mirza Aslam Beg often speaks his mind, proving that it is not necessary for a general to be in power to spew pearls of wisdom. In the past he caused quite a stir when he spoke of “strategic defiance”. Those were times when Iran, as today, was in a bitterly anti-US mood, and Gen Beg happened to be the Chief of the Army Staff. Thus when President Saddam Hussain invaded Kuwait, and President Bush Sr organised a world coalition to liberate the oil-rich sheikhdom, one thought the general would see to it that Pakistan kept aloof from the war that the US-led coalition was about to launch on Iraq. However, nothing of the sort happened, for not only did Pakistan send an army continent to Saudi Arabia to be part of the anti-Iraq coalition, Gen Beg himself went to Saudi Arabia to shake hands with Gen Schwarzkopf.

But like most generals who develop a strong fondness for democracy once out of uniform, the former army chief now wants a movement to be launched against the present “military regime”, and he expects Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mr Nawaz Sharif to do this, his reservations against the “charter of democracy” notwithstanding. More significantly, he said America would support such a movement. The general also wants a caretaker government to be in place six months ahead of the polls, and if the opposition sensed that free and fair elections were not possible, they should quit the assemblies and boycott the elections— quite a recipe for getting out of the political mess we are in! History will remember Gen. Beg for one positive good he did to the people of Pakistan: after his boss, army chief and President Ziaul Haq died in the air crash in August 1988, he along with Ghulam Ishaq Khan (the senate chairman who became the next president) decided that the election scheduled for November should remain unchanged. It is however another matter that he played a partisan role in the 1990 election in bringing a chosen alliance of parties into power and the negative impact the action had on the country’s nascent democratic process.

State of girls’ schools

THERE is nothing surprising about the fact that the Unicef-funded informal girls’ schools in Swabi in the NWFP are barely functional; what with children studying in mud-houses without any facilities as is the norm in some other parts of the country. However, if there is one positive aspect to this, it is that despite all the problems these schools face, teachers are expecting an increase in girls’ enrolment because of the proximity of the schools to children’s homes. This lends some credence to one of the points raised by the World Bank in its gender assessment report in which it says that cultural taboos need to be overcome if the country is to see an increase in its enrolment rate. One way is to set up schools close to children’s homes to encourage parents to send their children, particularly daughters, there. Although there has been an increase in the enrolment of girls in primary schools, the drop-out rate remains high as many girls do not go on to the secondary level and thus do not complete their education. It is this problem that needs to be addressed if Pakistan is to achieve the Millennium Development Goals on education.

Under the Primary Girls Education Project, the education department’s aim was to work with NGOs as well as involve the local community in providing informal education by donating buildings, paying for utilities and teachers’ salaries etc. There are some encouraging signs in Swabi where 30 such schools are working. The challenges ahead include recruiting more teachers as at present there is one teacher for 100 students in a school and she is being paid a pittance of a salary. Improving the schools’ condition should also be given attention as this will increase the enrolment rate.

Avoiding boom and bust cycles

THE rulers of the country are patting themselves on the back merrily on the success of their economic policies and practices. President Musharraf says the success of his economic policies is a result of placing the right man on the right job.

The parliament including the ruling coalition does not share the same enthusiasm for the prevailing economic policies and their end results. Shahid Javed Burki sees visions of a casino economy, particularly because of the bouncing boom on the stock exchange and in the real estate.

And World Bank’s Vice-President for South Asia Praful Patel says Pakistan’s economy has a history of boom and bust cycles and “now is the time to watch on the macro-economic situation”. He told the Pakistan Development forum in Islamabad that in addition to two negative shocks of oil prices and earthquake, there were signs of economic overheating as the imports were swelling at a faster rate than the exports. “The root cause of the growing external imbalance needs to be addressed to sustain rapid growth, not for a few years but 10 to 20 years through a coordinated monetary and fiscal policy response to avoid paying and disruption of a hard landing”.

The boom and bust cycle is largely the result of elected governments alternating military rule. In the period of military rule, the emphasis is on economic development, beginning with Ayub Khan‘s “Decade of Development”.

The Japanese delegate to the development forum referred to the soaring real estate prices and called it a “land bubble”.

The World Bank representative in Pakistan John Wall said the right way to look at the economy is not during a single good year, but three or four years before that and three or four years after that.

Hence the current official rejoicings over the economic turn around may be premature or hasty.

President Musharraf himself identifies some of the problems of the economy from time to time. He recently spoke of corruption and nepotism as two major problems, which afflicted the economy.

He also wants the masses to share the benefits of the high economic growth. He has identified inflation, poverty and unemployment as major problems of the economy. And he has promised water, power and gas for all by 2008, if possible by next year-end.

The European Union delegate at the PDF also spoke of corruption. And Praful Patel said that despite seven years of trade regulatory and banking reform, the cost of doing business in Pakistan was still too high and hence the second generation institutional and policy reforms were required along with large investment in the infrastructure.

There is so much mention about second generation reforms these days, without telling the people explicitly what all they include and what they are intended to deliver and by when.

The second-generation reforms are in a cloud and should be specified and made clearer to us.

While there have been rejoicings in the government over the four billion dollars of home remittances — after they had risen from one billion dollars before 9/11 — several PDF delegates lamented the manner in which such a large asset was frittered away on non-productive sectors, including import of cars for a billion dollars.

There was a real consensus on far more being spent on the infrastructure and the benefit of development made available to all instead of the rich few or the smart set.

The fear was voiced that Pakistan may not be able to sustain the growth of 6-8 per cent over the years without adequate development of the infrastructure.

Meanwhile, a Pakistani official told the PDF that the government needed $1.4 billion annually to bridge the budgetary gap. And Dr. Salman Shah, advisor to the prime minister said that Pakistan was able to reduce its budgetary gap from seven per cent of the GDP to 3.5 per cent, which is a welcome development.

Shortage of power was frequently mentioned as a deterrent to economic growth at the development forum. The government is making desperate efforts to get gas from Iran and Turkmenistan and power from Tajikistan and setting up five dams to produce hydel power. It is also seeking oil at concessional rates from Kuwait as it had promised to give such concessions after the October earthquake.

And now Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz has asked the members of the ruling coalition for suggestions on the budget to meet people’s expectations. In addition to asking for suggestions at the last meeting of the coalition, he will hold a meeting with them to formally solicit their views.

But if he does not accept their demand to reduce POL prices or for a cut in electricity rates, he may face problems during the budget debate in the national assembly.

With the public sector enterprises shrinking fast, the emphasis of the donors is now on public-private partnership. It was emphasised too often at the PDF that the share of the private sector in the infrastructure is too small and must be enlarged.

The private sector cannot any longer remain content with setting up more and more factories and ignore the vital infrastructure.

Meanwhile the Public Accounts Committee of the National Assembly is coming up with ghastly accounts of non-returned business loans by the private sector including by some famous figures and well-known business families. And the industrial development bank is to close down soon formally with long defaulted loans of Rs 27 billion. The bank has been a victim of powerful borrowers not returning the loans.

Chairman of PAC Malik Allahyar Khan has done well to refuse an official request to bar the press from attending its hearings. Why should the public funds be looted in the manner that it has been and the rich thrive on that and yet their name should not disclosed to the public?

We are told that inflation is eight per cent now after it had been 11.2 per cent last year and it will be 6.8 per cent next year and 6 per cent thereafter. Such promises and projections were made in the past as well, but to no avail. Unless positive measures are taken and sustained, real inflation will not come down.

Meanwhile, there are reports that hundred more items are to be included from India from the next financial year. That would raise the number of items in the positive list from India to be 82. There have been calls for a tight monetary policy from everywhere to fight inflation. A tight fiscal policy and a lax monetary policy cannot go together, insist the government’s critics. But like her predecessor, Dr Shamshad Akhtar, Governor of the State Bank prefers to be more persuasive than coercive. That is the policy of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz as well.

She says the banks with their assets of $60 billion, made a profit of Rs 90 billion in 2005. The profits in 2006 are bound to be larger as the difference between the deposit rate and the lending rate has risen to 7.35 per cent and yet she says she would persuade the banks to give a better deal to the depositors and not compel them. The banks do not fall in line, so we see.

The high inflation rate and a high lending rate with a very low deposit rate is too hurting to the savers particularly the small savers. And the banks are not likely to be persuaded to raise the deposit rates adequately in the manner Dr Ishrat Hussain could not succeed with his persuasive approach.

Meanwhile, there is a broad consensus that the benefits of the high economic growth could reach the market that has been putting up with varied economic hardships. They should not instead suffer the negative fallout of the high growth like the inflation and overheating of the economy.

So varied relief and rewards are being indicated. They may include higher pay for the low-income groups; better pay for the more capable officer and reduction of the tax on the low salary and higher pensions. If such measures do not add to the inflation or are brought about in a manner that does not aggravate the inflation, they are indeed welcome. John Wall talked about the “equity of rapid growth”.

As for the relief of low-income groups the fact of the coming general elections may ensure them a better deal than otherwise. They certainly deserve to be treated better rather than more promises being made rhetorically and then ignored.

Now after talking so much about the urgency for the last five reservoirs their total cost has been estimated at twenty five billion dollars. That is a lot of money to be raised, much before 2015.

The donors have been told of that. Now what matters is who comes up with how much and how soon and on what terms. And how much power we get out of this cheapest source of power?