In a state of self-imposed siege
By M. Ziauddin
PRESIDENT General Pervez Musharraf has argued once again that if the US Predator had violated Pakistan’s sovereignty on January 13, the Al-Qaeda elements and their supporters operating in Pakistan were as much guilty of the same crime. The president’s seeming attempt to equate the two markedly different but highly serious concerns sounded as if he was trying to justify the violation of our sovereignty by the US but in the process he seems to have ended up creating the impression that Pakistan was an open game for any bully.
If, however, he had simply wanted the people of Pakistan to protest with as much vehemence against Al Qaeda’s Pakistan operations as they were doing against the US Predator attack, perhaps he should have mobilized his party to the effect inside and outside parliament rather than making the point through media interviews which at best can have only fleeting impact.
It is not only the US and Al Qaeda which seem to have taken Islamabad for granted some other actors too seem to have joined in the game of embarrassing Islamabad. On December 27 last year New Delhi had the gumption to violate the universally accepted principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states when it asked Islamabad to exercise restraint and take recourse to peaceful discussions to address the grievances of the people of Balochistan.
Earlier, on December 13, the so-called Baloch ‘insurgents’ severely tested Islamabad’s writ by firing rockets in Kohlu during President Musharraf’s visit to the town. On December 4, the chief minister of Sindh, Arbab Ghulam Rahim, a member of the ruling PML, warned Islamabad against building the Kalabagh dam. Subsequently, almost all the Sindhi members of both the provincial and federal cabinets publicly defied Islamabad on the issue.
On January 8, the MQM, which holds the balance of power both at the centre and in the Sindh province, asked Islamabad to back off on this controversial dam, threatening to walk out of the ruling coalition if it did not do so. While one would like to believe the Saudi ambassador when he says that King Abdullah was misquoted by Indian media on the issue of New Delhi’s OIC ambitions, what the Saudi monarch had actually said (“Yes, as Russia did which have been given an observer status in the OIC. But it is better if a move in this regard is made in agreement with Pakistan”) on an Indian TV channel on January 22, shorn of diplomatic lingo, amounts to asking Islamabad to sponsor India’s association as an observer.
And what have been the responses of Islamabad to all these setbacks in a matter of a month or so? Let us consider them one by one. First, the prime minister went to Washington on January 24 and took care of the January 13 incident in his own way by joining the US president in stating that “Pakistan-US are one in the war on terror.”
Second, India’s gratuitous advice on Balochistan was taken care of by sending foreign secretary to New Delhi on January 17 to join his Indian counterpart in preparing the agenda for the third round of the composite dialogue. Meanwhile, the Amritsar-Lahore and Amritsar-Nankana Sahib bus services were started and the Khokrapar-Monabao railway link was finalized to give a further boost to the on-going CBMs.
Third, Immediately following the Kohlu incident, Islamabad launched an armed action against ‘miscreants’ in Balochistan. Now the Balochs are demanding ‘demilitarization’ of their province and ‘self-governance’ as preconditions for disarming and a negotiated settlement of their conflict with Islamabad.
The Kashmir conflict and the current Baloch imbroglio are two qualitatively different issues, still if, as the president believes, ‘demilitarization’ and ‘self-government’ could open the doors for resolving the Kashmir conflict without first meeting the Indian condition for complete stoppage of the so-called cross-LoC terrorism, why can’t the some principle be applied in the case of Balochistan and work out a solution without the militants in the province first requiring to disarm?
Fourth, on January 16, seemingly succumbing to the MQM pressure, Islamabad backed off from Kalabagh. Fifth, on the issue of granting observer status to India in the OIC, Islamabad seems to have chosen to hide behind the fig leaf of Saudi ambassador’s clarification.
But what else could have Islamabad done under the circumstances? Pick up a fight with Washington, New Delhi and Riyadh all at the same time? Out of the question. Without the US and Saudi support, the bluster that Islamabad exudes currently within and outside the country would simply vanish in the thin air. Pakistan simply cannot afford to walk away from the on-going peace process with India, no matter what the provocation, short perhaps of an Indian aggression, because its closest friends and many more global influentials, who see the region as a nuclear flash point, would not let Islamabad do that come what may.
Also, in Islamabad’s own enlightened self-interest all options other than peace with India seem to have already lost their relevance. And what about the Sindhi members of the ruling party and the MQM? If they walk out of the government, Islamabad would be left with no option but to fall back on either Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto or both — a prospect totally unacceptable to the present rulers in Islamabad under any circumstances. So, it abandoned Kalabagh to save the governments at the centre and in Sindh.
And with all the fire power at its command and accountable to no one in the country, the government can hardly afford to be seen to be succumbing to the armed challenge by a few rag-tag Baloch groups and negotiating a political solution with them. So, the uprising in Balochistan must go on. A similar situation is also going on in the Fata along the border with Afghanistan and action is being taken to flush out the so-called foreign militants with alleged links to Al Qaeda. In any case, being a victim of terrorism, it is in the interest of Pakistan to do everything in its capacity to eradicate the menace from its soil.
What has brought Pakistan to this sorry pass? Or is it really all that bad? Could it be that since all this has happened within a month or so, the sum total has given an exaggerated picture of each one of these chastening developments? Perhaps a mountain is being made out of a molehill. However, much as one would like to believe this, one simply cannot ignore the realities on the ground. Islamabad is getting increasingly besieged by the day.
It seems to be a self-imposed siege because our ruling elite which includes the civil-military bureaucracy, the big business, the Chaudhries, the Khans, the waders, the sardars and the media tycoons, has not yet unlearnt the lessons of governance that it had learnt from our colonial rulers. It still regards the four federating units, the AJK, the Northern Areas and Fata as its satraps. This has been the root cause of all our problems.
Take, for example, the feigned surprise of our present rulers at the hostile local opposition to the Rs. 140 billion worth of development projects in Balochistan. What those sitting in Islamabad don’t understand is that unless the local beneficiaries are made stakeholders in these projects in the real sense, they would continue to suffer from the suspicion that all these efforts were nothing but a ruse to further tighten the stranglehold on them.

